NFL Divisional Round Predictions

 

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs greet each other after an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (AP Photo)

After a wildcard weekend that was mostly filled with blowouts (including an embarrassing performance by the Dallas Cowboys), it is officially time for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. 

14 teams entered the dance and now, only eight are still alive in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. This weekend has some incredible games on the slate, including a renewal of one of the greatest rivalries in the league (Packers-49ers), and a good 'ole NFC Central matchup (Buccaneers-Lions). This weekend also features a matchup between the favourites to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year and MVP award respectively (Texans-Ravens) while also marking the newest chapter between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (Chiefs-Bills).

Last season, I went 2-2 with my divisional round picks and the year before that, I went 1-3, so hopefully I go over .500 with my picks this season.

My best pick from last week was: taking the Buccaneers over the Eagles. If you've watched any football over the past couple of months, then you would know that the Eagles were not just cooked; they were baked to 500 degrees Fahrenheit heading into their matchup against the Buccaneers. Now, general manager Howie Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie have a lot of work to do this offseason to get Philly back on track in 2024 and beyond.

My worst pick from last week was: taking the Cowboys over the Packers. How 'bout them Cowboys. Even the biggest detractors of this team couldn't foresee what took place last Sunday at AT&T Stadium (where Dallas went undefeated during the regular season). The Cowboys just became the first team in NFL history to win 12 games in three consecutive seasons and fail to make a conference championship game appearance in that span. Yikes.

Saturday Games:

C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports)

Houston Texans (11-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-4): 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN/ESPN+)

After thrashing the Cleveland Browns by 31 points in last week's wild-card game, the Houston Texans find themselves in the divisional round of the playoffs for just the fifth time in franchise history. But if they want to advance to the AFC Championship game for the first time in franchise history, they'll need to knock off a Ravens team that finished with the best record in the NFL.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was absolutely fantastic in his playoff debut against the Browns, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdown passes. Stroud may be in his rookie season, but he hasn't been playing like one at all this season. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 23 touchdown passes during the regular season, while throwing just five interceptions.

 However, this week will mark the toughest challenge that Stroud has faced all season, as the Ravens have a top-notch defensive unit that finished the regular season ranking sixth in total defence, and first in points allowed per game and DVOA. Led by defensive lineman Justin Madubuike (13 sacks) and edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks) and Kyle Van Noy (9 sacks), Baltimore was the best team in the NFL this season at bringing down the quarterback, leading the league with 60 sacks. Texans All-Pro left tackle Laremy Tunsil and the rest of Houston's offensive line will need to give Stroud time to find Nico Collins (80 catches, 1,297 receiving yards, eight touchdowns) and others downfield against a stingy Ravens pass defence.

Conversely, Houston's defence must find a way to slow down All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson, who is the odds-on favourite to win the MVP for the second time in his career, has enjoyed another fantastic season, totalling 4,499 yards of offence (3,678 passing yards, 821 rushing yards), while scoring 29 total touchdowns (24 passing, 5 rushing). The Ravens have provided Jackson with a lot of weapons on offence, including rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers (77 catches, 858 receiving yards, six total touchdowns), and veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (565 receiving yards, 16.1 yards per catch). Additionally, Baltimore might get All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews (45 catches, 544 yards, six TDs) back for this game after the six-year veteran fractured his fibula in a Week 11 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans' best shot to neutralise Baltimore's fourth-ranked scoring offence will be to get pressure on Jackson, led by their top two edge rushers; Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks) and rookie Will Anderson Jr. (7 sacks).

The fact that the Texans are playing football in mid-January is something that nobody (not even the most optimistic Texans fans) saw coming. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans became just the third head coach-rookie QB combo to win a playoff game since 1970. It's been an incredible ride for both of them and Houston will be in the AFC playoff mix for years to come. But I can't pick against Jackson at home, not with how locked in he's been all season. The Ravens will win and advance to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2012.

Texans 20 Ravens 27

Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the football during an NFL playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (Matt Ludtke/AP Photo)

Green Bay Packers (10-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-5): 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)

For the 10th time in NFL history, the Packers and the 49ers will meet in the playoffs, so as you can imagine, there is a lot of backstory to this matchup. San Francisco holds the edge with a 5-4 postseason record against Green Bay, including wins in the last four meetings (which all featured Aaron Rodgers as the Packers' quarterback). This time around, it will be Jordan Love making his first start in this historic rivalry.

In his playoff debut last week against the Cowboys, Love was outstanding, throwing for 272 yards and three touchdown passes, while finishing with an astonishing 157.2 passer rating (tied with the aforementioned C.J. Stroud for the best mark ever for a quarterback making his first playoff start). Love also received help from Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones (118 rushing yards, three rushing TDs vs Dallas) and wide receiver Romeo Doubs (6 catches, 151 receiving yards, one receiving TD vs Dallas). Since Week 11, Love has been exceptional, Jones has been on fire recently, and their wide receiver group is deep and talented, which has led to the Packers averaging 28.5 points per game over the last seven weeks.

However, the 49ers' defence will present a lot of problems for the Packers' offence. San Francisco finished eighth in total defence, and third in points allowed per game. Led by All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner (132 total tackles, 2.5 sacks, four interceptions), Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa (10.5 sacks) and All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward (five interceptions, 23 pass deflections), the Niners' defence will give Love and Co. a huge run for their money throughout this game.

The biggest mismatch in this game comes on the other side of the ball. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was lights out all season, throwing for 4,280 yards (fifth in the NFL), and 31 touchdown passes (third in the NFL). In addition to this, Purdy broke the NFL record for the most passing yards per attempt (9.6), while also leading the league in passer rating (113.0). The 49ers had four players that finished with 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage this season, with All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (2,023 total yards, 21 total touchdowns), All-Pro tight end George Kittle (65 catches, 1,020 receiving yards, six touchdowns), and wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (75 catches, 1,342 receiving yards, 17.2 yards per catch, seven receiving touchdowns), and Deebo Samuel (1,117 total yards, 12 total touchdowns) all having fantastic seasons. Green Bay's defence (10th in points allowed per game, 27th in DVOA) will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them in this matchup.

Love and the Packers have had an amazing season, and it appears that they will be a fixture in the NFC for a long time, but the 49ers are well-rested, at home, and the better team. It will be closer than many people might expect but look for San Francisco to win and advance to their third consecutive NFC Championship game.

Packers 27 49ers 34

Sunday Games:

Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions drops back to pass during an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (Jeff Nguyen/Detroit Lions)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) @ Detroit Lions (12-5): 3:00 p.m. ET (NBC)

From 1970 to 2001, the Buccaneers and the Lions were rivals in the NFC Central division and played each other two times a year. On Sunday, both teams will meet with a trip to the NFC Championship game on the line; for the Bucs, a win would put them in the conference championship game for the second time in four years, while a victory for the Lions would put them in the NFL's final four for the first time since 1992.

When these two teams met earlier this season back in Week 6, the Lions won, 20-6, in Tampa Bay. Lions quarterback Jared Goff was great in that game (353 passing yards, two passing TDs) and he's coming off a great performance (277 passing yards, one touchdown pass) against the Rams in last week's wild-card round victory. Detroit's offence is elite and features a bunch of playmakers, such as the running back duo of David Montgomery (1,015 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1,261 total yards, 11 total TDs), alongside All-Pro slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (119 catches, 1,515 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns) and All-Pro rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (86 catches, 889 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns). Tampa Bay's defence (14th in DVOA) has been solid all season, and they were great against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offence last week, but going up against this Lions' offence surely won't be easy.

Meanwhile, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has continued to have an incredible season. After finishing the regular season with 28 touchdown passes, Mayfield carved up the Eagles' defence in the wild-card round, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdown passes. He and wide receivers Mike Evans (79 catches, 1,255 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns) and Chris Godwin (84 catches, 1,024 receiving yards, two touchdowns) will have a nice matchup this week against a bad Lions pass defence (27th in passing yards allowed per game).

 An interesting battle in this game will be between the Buccaneers' red zone offence, which struggled all season (they converted just 44.9 per cent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns) and the Lions' red zone defence (which was great against the Rams, but bad for most of the season). I think it's safe to say whichever team wins in that area of the field will come out with the victory, and I think that team will be the Lions. With a rocking home crowd behind them, Detroit will win and set up an NFC Championship game matchup against the 49ers.

Buccaneers 23 Lions 27

James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6): 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

For the third time in the last four years, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will face each other in the playoffs. And while Mahomes and the Chiefs have won the first two meetings (including a classic divisional round game in the 2021 postseason), both of those games were in Kansas City. This time around, Mahomes has to play a road playoff game for the first time in his career and go to Allen's house at Highmark Stadium (where the Bills only lost one time during the regular season).

The Chiefs' offence played well beyond its usual standard throughout the season, finishing ninth in total offence and 16th in scoring offence (the lowest they've ranked in both categories during the Mahomes era). However, they had one of their best performances of the season last week in the wild-card round against the Dolphins, finishing with 409 yards of offence. Mahomes (262 passing yards, one passing TD) played much better than the boxscore shows and rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice (8 catches, 130 receiving yards, one touchdown) was excellent. Nevertheless, the Chiefs still had problems scoring in the red zone, going 2-6 between the 20s against Miami last week. Buffalo's defence has been great all season at keeping points to a minimum, so that's a key battle to watch in this game.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo did a fantastic job of slowing down Allen in the regular season meeting between these two teams, holding the Pro Bowl quarterback to just 233 passing yards and a 68.8 passer rating. So although Allen will obviously have to play well if the Bills are going to win, I think Buffalo would be smart to lean on running back James Cook (1,567 total yards, six total TDs in 2023) throughout this game. Cook had 141 total yards (58 rushing, 83 receiving) in the regular season meeting and while the Chiefs' defence was very good all season long, their run defence ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, so the Bills should be able to run the football at a solid clip on Sunday. Additionally, another interesting matchup to watch in this game will be between Bills All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs (107 catches, 1,183 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns) and Chiefs star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (two interceptions, 14 pass deflections).

The latest edition of Allen-Mahomes is shaping up to be a great game between two Super Bowl contenders. Look for both teams to go back and forth throughout, with Allen and Cook making a couple of plays late to help the Bills advance to the AFC Championship game while ending the Chiefs' championship repeat hopes in snowy Buffalo.

Chiefs 20 Bills 24