NFL Divisional Round Predictions

 

After a mostly boring Wildcard Weekend, it is time for the Divisional Round where only 8 teams remain alive in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. This week features a lot of interesting, and fun matchups including rematches dating all the way back to Week 3 (Rams-Buccaneers, 49ers-Packers), a clash of opposite styles (Bengals-Titans), and lastly, an AFC Championship rematch from last year between Josh Allen and the Bills going up against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. On paper, this is shaping up to be one of the best divisional round weekends ever!

Last week, I went 6-0 in my picks (Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, 49ers, Chiefs, Rams), which I think is the first (and probably only) time I'll get all of my picks right. I'm not sure that it'll happen again this week, but I am definitely more optimistic compared to last week.

Best pick from last week: 49ers over Cowboys. I felt like this game was going to be the most interesting playoff game from last week, and I was right (although for reasons that no one could've foreseen, i.e., Cowboys play-calling in the final seconds). San Francisco played their game, made fewer mistakes, and as a result, they get to move on

Worst pick from last week: None. Hopefully next week, I can say the same thing.

Saturday Games:

Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) @ Tennessee Titans (12-5): CBS at 4:30 p.m. ET

The Bengals (fresh off their first playoff win since 1991) will now look to advance to their first AFC Championship game since 1988 with a road win over the Titans, who come in as the number one seed in the AFC for the third time in franchise history, and may get a huge boost as it looks like All-Pro running back Derrick Henry will play for the first time since he suffered a Jones fracture back in Week 8.

Last week, Joe Burrow threw for 244 yards, and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders, with 116 of those yards going to his buddy and Rookie of the Year favourite Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals offence matches very well with the Titans defence in that the Bengals boast the 7th ranked passing attack under Burrow, while the Titans ranked just 25th in passing defence. Tennessee needs their pass rush (Harold Landry (12 sacks), Denico Autry (9 sacks), and All-Pro Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks) to get to Burrow and hit him early and often.

On the flip side, the Titans are a downhill, run-first team led by the aforementioned Derrick Henry. It remains to be seen if Henry will be the same player in this game considering he hasn't played since Halloween. But even if he isn't, Dontrell Hilliard (6.3 yards per carry), and D'Onta Foreman (566 rushing yards) have been solid all year long and will present a challenge to a good Bengals run defence (5th in stopping the run), although they will be without defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (7 sacks) who was a big reason for Cincy's overall success on defence. 

In the end, I see Henry and the Titans running their way to the AFC Championship Game for the 2nd time in 3 years.

The pick: Bengals 24 Titans 30

San Francisco 49ers (11-7) @ Green Bay Packers (13-4): FOX at 8:15 p.m. ET

San Francisco. Green Bay. NFC divisional game at Lambeau Field. Doesn't really get any better than that. The Packers won that Week 3 matchup in San Francisco 30-28, with a 51-yard game winning field goal by Mason Crosby. Green Bay will attempt to make their third straight NFC Championship Game appearance, while the Niners will try to continue their playoff dominance against Aaron Rodgers (the 49ers are 3-0 in the playoffs against the reigning MVP).

As I mentioned last week, the 49ers are a run-first offence centered around the talents of Elijah Mitchell, and the positionless Deebo Samuel, who totaled 110 yards (72 rushing, 38 receiving) against the Cowboys in last week's Wildcard game. Mitchell ran for 96 yards, and a TD, and in total, the Niners ran for 169 yards against Dallas. The Packers run defence ranked 11th, although they struggled against the run down the stretch, most notably, Nick Chubb ran for 219 yards against the Packers on Christmas Day. And of course, everyone remembers the 2019 NFC Championship Game where 49ers running back Raheem Mostert ran over the Packers for 220 rushing yards and 4 TDs. We'll see if Green Bay is up to the challenge this time around.

On the other side, the 49ers defence has been playing like it's 2019 Super Bowl self recently, as it ranks first in run defence since Week 8. The Niners' two top players on defence edge rusher Nick Bosa (concussion), and middle linebacker Fred Warner (ankle) will play on Saturday. Even when Bosa left the Dallas game just before halftime, San Francisco still managed 22 pressures and 5 sacks on Dak Prescott. The Packers offensive line has dealt with many injuries this season, but even so, they've held up well for the majority of the season and may get All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari back for this one which would be huge. The Niners pass defence ranks 6th, but their secondary can be exposed. All-Pro receiver Davante Adams could be in for a big game (He had 12 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown in the Week 3 meeting).

I see the Packers defence slowing down Deebo just enough (somehow), while Rodgers gets time to throw and carves up the Niners secondary to advance.

The pick: 49ers 21 Packers 31

Sunday Games:

  Los Angeles Rams (13-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4): NBC at 3:00 p.m. ET

Over here, we got another rematch from Week 3 as Matthew Stafford (fresh off his first playoff win) and the star-studded Rams go to Tampa to take on Tom Brady and the defending champion Buccaneers. Back in Week 3, Stafford had arguably his best game of the season, throwing for 4 TDs in a 34-24 victory. However, that was in Week 3, so both teams look incredibly different this time around.

For the Rams offence, there's a couple of things I want to point out; One, the Rams leading receiver in the last meeting between these two was Desean Jackson (120 yards, 1 TD) who is no longer on the team. And second, Stafford was tremendous against the blitz, both in the Week 3 game, and really all year long. He went 8-11 for 81 yards and a touchdown against the blitz (when a defence sends five or more defensive players to rush the quarterback) in that Week 3 matchup, and the bad news for the Bucs is that they blitz 40.8% of their snaps on defence. The Bucs defence has to get pressure with four or else Stafford will dice them up again.

For the Bucs offence, they've played very well as of late, averaging 33 points in their last four, including last week's wildcard victory over the Eagles. Brady threw for 432 yards in the first meeting, but only one TD, and also the Buccaneers only managed 35 rushing yards (Brady led the team with 14, which obviously isn't what you want) in that game. Brady was also sacked 3 times in Week 3, and the Rams have since added Von Miller (6 sacks in 10 games with L.A.) to their embarrassment of riches when it comes to rushing the passer. I'm also interested to see if the Rams put their star defensive back Jalen Ramsey on the Bucs top weapon Mike Evans to take him out of the game. Although the Rams have usually refused to deploy Ramsey against the opposing team's top receiver for the entire game this season.

I think the Rams match up very well against the Buccaneers. I know picking against Tom Brady in the playoffs usually doesn't end well. But I'm doing it here. Rams win a thriller (in overtime nonetheless!)

The pick: Rams 30 Buccaneers 27 (OT)

Buffalo Bills (12-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-5): CBS at 6:30 p.m. ET

And finally to end the divisional round, we got a matchup that promises to produce a lot of fireworks as the Bills take on the Chiefs for the fourth time in the last two years. The Chiefs defeated the Bills in last year's AFC Championship 38-24, however, the Bills exacted a little bit of revenge as they beat the Chiefs in Kansas City back in Week 5 by a score of 38-20.

Josh Allen is coming off a absolutely dominant performance against the Patriots in last week's wildcard game, throwing for 308 yards, 5 TDs, and rushed for 66 on the ground. In the Week 5 game, Allen was also unstoppable as he threw for 315 yards, 3 TDs, and 59 rushing yards. Of course, Kansas City's defence has done a full 180 since that game. Over their first 8 games of the season, they gave up 27.5 points per game. But over their last nine, they've given up just 16 points per game. I think the key for the Chiefs' defence here is to (somehow) keep Allen in the pocket, and not allow him to take over the game with his arm and legs, while keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sideline.

For the Chiefs on offence, they're definitely going to have to play much better than they did in the first meeting. Mahomes struggled in that one, tossing 2 interceptions, and the offence as a whole committed 4 turnovers. The Chiefs will have a tough challenge of generating huge plays in the passing game against the Bills' number one ranked defence, anchored by their two elite safeties Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde. Although I do think the loss of Bills All-Pro corner Tre'Davious White could finally catch up to Buffalo, considering they're up against the likes of Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce (108 yards, 1 TD against the Steelers last week).

All in all, I think this will be the most fun, and entertaining game coming up this weekend. Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes is shaping up to be the NFL's next great rivalry between the two young guns in the AFC. Give me the Bills in a upset on the road, as they advance to their 2nd consecutive AFC title game.

The pick: Bills 33 Chiefs 30