2024 NFL Championship Sunday Predictions

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs and Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens greet each other after an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 9, 2018, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

After an exciting divisional round of the NFL playoffs where three of the four games were decided by eight points or less, it is officially time for one of the best events in sports: NFL Championship Sunday.

First, Patrick Mahomes (fresh off winning his first-ever playoff game away from Arrowhead Stadium) and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will hit the road once more to take on the team that finished with the best record in the NFL this season; the Baltimore Ravens, led by MVP favourite Lamar Jackson, who will be playing in his first AFC title game. This will be the first time that Mahomes and Jackson (two of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the NFL and future first-ballot Hall of Famers) will face each other in the playoffs. Both teams are also led by future Hall of Fame head coaches as well, with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh each already having double-digit playoff victories and Super Bowl titles (two for Reid, one for Harbaugh) under their resume.

Then later on Sunday, the Detroit Lions will do something they last did in 1992; play in the NFC Championship game. This is a team that came into the 2023 NFL season having not won a playoff game in three decades, but if the Lions can knock off the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers on the road, then Detroit will be headed to their first Super Bowl in franchise history! However, the 49ers are making their third consecutive appearance in the NFC title game. They would surely like to erase the memories of the past two seasons, where they fell short against the Rams and the Eagles respectively in the conference championship game.

So who's moving on to the Super Bowl? And whose season is going to end disappointingly? Let's get to the predictions! But first...

My best pick from last week was: Choosing the 49ers over the Packers. It was a very close game, a game that the Packers probably should've won, but ultimately, San Francisco just has Green Bay's number in the playoffs right now, which is partly why I picked the Niners to advance in last week's divisional round predictions article. The future is looking bright for Green Bay, though, with Jordan Love as the quarterback moving forward.

My worst pick from last week: Choosing the Bills over the Chiefs. I went 3-1 with my picks from last week's games and this is the only game that I picked incorrectly, so it's the choice by default. But still, I thought that the Bills (with home-field advantage) would get the best of the Chiefs this time around. But once again, similarly to how the 49ers have the Packers' number come playoff time, Josh Allen just can't seem to crack the code against Patrick Mahomes in January. Sorry, Bills mafia.

AFC Championship Game:

Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens outruns Sheldon Rankins #98 of the Houston Texans to score a touchdown during an NFL playoff game, Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (14-4): 3:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

As I previously mentioned, both of these teams are led by their dynamic, all-time great quarterbacks. But I also have a feeling that it won't be easy for Mahomes or Jackson to light up the scoreboard on Sunday, and that's because the Chiefs and the Ravens each have elite defences.

During the regular season, Kansas City ranked second in total defence, and second in points allowed per game (17.3). Led by defensive linemen Chris Jones (10.5 sacks), George Karlaftis (10.5 sacks), and Charles Omenihu (seven sacks), the Chiefs have been adept at getting to the quarterback all season long, evidenced by their 57 sacks (second in the NFL). However, if there is a weakness in this Chiefs' defence, it's their inconsistency in the run game, as their run defence ranked in the bottom half of the NFL. That could pose some big problems in this game for the reigning champs, as Baltimore led the league in rushing yards per game (156.5), and they are coming off a dominant performance against the Houston Texans in the divisional round where they ran for 229 yards (including 100 from Jackson himself). And even if K.C. slows down Baltimore's ground game, Jackson has really improved as a passer this season, and he could get All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews back for this matchup as well.

And on the flip side, you could make the argument that the Ravens have the best defence in the NFL. If there's any defence that can slow down Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, it's defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald's crew, which finished sixth in total defence, first in both points allowed per game (16.5) and sacks (60), and tied for the second most interceptions (18) during the regular season. And led by All-Pro defensive lineman Justin Madubuike (13 sacks), All-Pro middle linebacker Roquan Smith (158 combined tackles, 1.5 sacks, eight pass deflections) and All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton (81 combined tackles, three sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 13 pass deflections, four interceptions), this is a defence that is extremely unique and talented on all three levels.

Of course, this is not uncharted territory for Andy Reid's unit. It's "been there, done that before" for Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. And with support from Kelce (who had been mired in a slump before the Bills game), rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, and running back Isiah Pacheco (186 rushing yards, 5.1 rushing yards per attempt in the playoffs), Mahomes and Co. definitely have what it takes to get back to the big game.

This is the sixth consecutive year (2018-2024) that Mahomes and the Chiefs are in the AFC championship game, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history behind only the Tom Brady-led Patriots (2011-2018). Kansas City is looking primed to be the next dynasty in the NFL, especially if they can get back to the Super Bowl and win it this year. But this is Lamar's time. With the crowd at "The Bank" behind them, the Ravens' elite defence forces a couple of turnovers off of Mahomes while Jackson makes a couple of dazzling plays late in the game to seal Baltimore's first trip to the Super Bowl since 2012.

Chiefs 23 Ravens 26

NFC Championship Game:

Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions celebrates and walks off the field after an NFL playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Detroit Lions (14-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-5): 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Two specific matchups are going to decide who represents the NFC in Super Bowl LVIII; first off, can the Lions run the football effectively and open up play-action pass opportunities for quarterback Jared Goff? And secondly, can the Lions' pass rush make 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy uncomfortable and force him to turn the ball over?

In regards to the first matchup, The Lions should be able to match San Francisco's physicality. Detroit finished the regular season ranking fifth in rushing yards per game (135.9) and is coming off a solid rushing performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round where they ran for 114 yards and 4.4 yards per carry.

 San Francisco's defence ranked in the top three in rushing yards allowed per game during the regular season, but they also just gave up 136 rushing yards in their win over the Packers last week. And while the Packers have one great running back (Aaron Jones), the Lions have two really good running backs in David Montgomery (1,015 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (945 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) and a very good offensive line anchored by All-Pro center Frank Ragnow and All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell.

Goff and the Lions love to throw the football over the middle of the field, but that's where the strength of the 49ers defence lies, led by All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner (132 combined tackles, 2.5 sacks, 11 pass deflections, four interceptions) and Warner's fellow linebacker partner Dre Greenlaw (120 tackles, two interceptions vs the Packers in the divisional round). Detroit will need to be able to run the football so that they can keep Warner and Greenlaw guessing, which will enable Goff to throw it over the middle to All-Pro slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (119 catches, 1,515 yards, 10 touchdowns) and All-Pro tight end Sam LaPorta (86 catches, 889 yards, 10 touchdowns). On the flip side, if the Niners can slow down Montgomery and Gibbs, that will allow Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa (10.5 sacks) and the rest of their pass rush to pin their ears back and get after Goff, which would be a recipe for disaster for Detroit.

As for the other key matchup, there's a formula for the Lions' defence to have success in this game, which is if their stout run defence (second in rushing yards allowed per game) can slow down running 49ers All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (2,023 total yards, 21 total touchdowns) and if Aidan Hutchinson, their 23-year old edge rusher who finished the season with 11.5 sacks, has a big game. Hutchinson, a first-time Pro Bowl selection in 2023, has eight sacks in his last four games, so he's certainly capable of wrecking the game for the 49ers' offence. However, if San Francisco can limit his impact, Purdy (4,280 passing yards, 31 touchdown passes during the regular season) should be able to have a monster game against a below-average Lions pass defence, even if Deebo Samuel, their do-it-all weapon, can't play.

All in all, this is shaping up to be a fun NFC title game matchup. The Lions have had an amazing season, and it wouldn't be completely shocking if they managed to win this game (which would be their first road playoff win since 1957, which coincidentally, was against the 49ers in San Francisco). However, San Francisco, at home, is the better team. This is their fourth NFC Championship game appearance over the last five years, and this is a team that is hungry to get back to the Super Bowl. It will be a back-and-forth contest, but ultimately, the Niners will get it done at home.

Lions 30 49ers 37