NFL Divisional Round Predictions

 

After a crazy Super Wild Card Weekend, it is time for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs!

The first round of the NFL playoffs certainly lived up to its name, as four out of the six games were one-score contests, including a legendary comeback by Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, who came back down 27-0 to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers.

There are some fascinating matchups that will be on display during the second round of the postseason, including the young upstarts going up against the longtime juggernauts (Jaguars-Chiefs), a classic NFC East rivalry renewal (Giants-Eagles), a showdown between two AFC powerhouses (Bengals-Bills) and a throwback matchup from the '90s (Cowboys-49ers).

Last year, both of the number one seeds in each conference were eliminated in the divisional round for the first time since 2010. Will Kansas City and Philadelphia be able to avoid that same fate this year? Can't wait to find out!

My best pick from last week: Bengals over Ravens. In what was a wild game, the Bengals managed to hang on to defeat their AFC North rivals. Baltimore battled valiantly without Lamar Jackson, but in the end, Tyler Huntley's fumble in the 4th quarter proved to be the difference maker.

My worst pick from last week: Vikings over Giants. Minnesota won 13 games during the regular season, but 11 of those victories were decided by 8 or less points, and they had a point differential of -3. The Vikings managed to pull wins out of their hat for the majority of the 2022 season, but eventually, their luck ran out.

Saturday Games:

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (14-3): 4:30 PM EST on NBC

After completing a miraculous comeback against the Chargers last week, the Jaguars now find themselves in the divisional round for just the 6th time in franchise history. They'll be taking on a dominant Chiefs team that is looking to make their 5th consecutive AFC Championship game.

Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence got off to a horrible start in his playoff debut, tossing four interceptions in the first half. But once he settled in, it spelled huge trouble for the Chargers. On the last five drives of the game, Lawrence completed 23 of 29 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns. Christian Kirk (8 catches, 78 yards, TD), and Evan Engram (7 catches, 93 yards, TD) came up big time and time again, and they'll have a chance to produce in this game against a below-average Chiefs pass defence (18th in passing yards allowed per game). However, the Chiefs do rank 2nd in the league with 55 sacks and 8th in rushing yards allowed per game, so Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (109 rushing yards against the Chargers) could have a tough time finding yards on the ground in this one.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars defence will have to contend with Patrick Mahomes, who is likely going to be named this year's MVP. Mahomes had another excellent season in 2022, throwing for a league-high 5,250 yards, and 45 touchdowns. Led by tight end Travis Kelce (110 catches, 1,338 yards, 12 TDs, First-team All-Pro), wide receiver Juju Smith Schuster (78 catches, 933 yards, 3 TDs), and running back Isiah Pacheco (960 total yards, 5 TDs), the Chiefs led the league in total yards per game, passing yards per game and points per game. Jacksonville's defence did a really solid job against the Chargers' offence last week, specifically against the run. But they face a much tougher challenge this week, going up against a Chiefs offensive line that finished 4th in PFF's offensive line rankings for the season.

I think this will be a very high scoring matchup with Lawrence and Mahomes trading blows throughout the afternoon. Ultimately though, the Chiefs, with their playoff experience combined with the home field advantage and the virtually unstoppable Mahomes will prevail in a close one.

Jaguars 27 Chiefs 36

New York Giants (10-7-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3): 8:15 PM EST on Fox

This is the third time that the Giants and Eagles are facing off this season, with the Eagles winning the first two matchups between the NFC East rivals.

Philadelphia thrashed New York 48-22 back in December and then held on for a 22-16 victory in Week 18, which clinched both the division and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs for the Eagles.

Daniel Jones had the best game of his career last week against the Vikings, totaling 379 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 114.1 passer rating in the 31-24 road win. Making big play after big play, Jones (in his playoff debut) continued to prove to the Giants that he is their franchise quarterback, and that they should do everything they can to re-sign him in the offseason.

However, it's important to note that Jones was going up against a Vikings defence that finished 31st in total defence during the regular season. He and the Giants' passing attack will have a much more difficult challenge against the Eagles, who rank 1st in passing yards allowed per game. Cornerbacks Darius Slay (3 interceptions, 73.1 PFF grade, Pro Bowl) and James Bradberry (51.6 passer rating allowed, 3 interceptions, Second-team All-Pro) make up the best cornerback duo in the NFL.

 Philly also led the league with an astonishing 70 sacks, with edge rushers Haason Reddick (16 sacks, Second-team All-Pro), Josh Sweat (11 sacks), Brandon Graham (11 sacks) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (11 sacks) leading the way. New York's best bet to scoring points will be on the ground with Saquon Barkley (1,312 rushing yards) running through a suspect Eagles run defence (16th in rushing yards allowed per game)

New York's defence did a excellent job of slowing down the Vikings' elite offensive weapons in the previous round, holding star running back Dalvin Cook to just 60 rushing yards and All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson to 47 receiving yards. Their defensive line headlined by Dexter Lawrence (8 pressures against the Vikings) was dominant. But the Eagles' offence is a whole different animal.

Unlike the Vikings, the Eagles have two dominant wide receivers in A.J. Brown (88 catches, 1,496 receiving yards, 11 TDs, Second-team All-Pro) and DeVonta Smith (95 catches, 1,196, 7 TDs). They also feature running back Miles Sanders (1,110 rushing yards, 11 TDs, Pro Bowl) and tight end Dallas Goedert (55 catches, 702 yards, 3 TDs in 12 games). And of course, quarterback Jalen Hurts (3,701 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 760 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs, Second-team All-Pro) played at an elite level all season long.

The Giants will put up a good fight, but the Eagles will complete the season series sweep and move on to host next week's NFC Championship Game.

Giants 17 Eagles 24

Sunday Games:

Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) @ Buffalo Bills (14-3): 3:00 PM EST on CBS

This is a rematch of the Week 17 game that was ultimately cancelled after the frightening Damar Hamlin incident. The Bengals are trying to make their 2nd consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance, while the Bills are trying to get to the NFL's final four for the 2nd time in 3 seasons.

Both teams are led by their explosive passing attacks. Joe Burrow (209 passing yards, one TD vs Ravens in Wildcard round) leads the 8th best passing offence in the NFL. However, there is one huge problem for the Bengals here, and that is their offensive line, which will be missing 3 starters in this matchup. The Bills defence isn't as dominant compared to previous seasons (15th in passing defence during the regular season), but they did finish tied for 11th in ESPN's pass rush win rate rankings, suggesting that they should be able to get consistent pressure on Burrow. And with Cincy's offensive line being in a state of flux, this could allow the Bills defence to rush only four and drop seven back into coverage, which will allow them to better contain the Bengals offensive weapons on the outside.

While Burrow is more dominant making checks at the line of scrimmage and making precise throws, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is kind of an enigma: on one hand, he's a absolute scoring machine (84 total TDs over the last two seasons), but on the other, he can also be very careless with the football (40 giveaways over the last two seasons). If the former can outweigh the latter, the Bills should be able to put up points on a vulnerable Bengals pass defence that's struggled ever since number one cornerback Chidobe Awuzie was lost for the season back in Week 8.

This will definitely be an emotional game, with reference to what took place when they last took the field together in Week 17. Both teams are elite, both teams are on hot streaks (Bengals have won nine straight while the Bills have 8 straight), and both teams are hungry to get their first championship for their passionate fanbases. However, only one of these AFC juggernauts will move on. In the end, Buffalo (with home field advantage at a raucous Highmark Stadium) will pull out the victory, making the neutral site AFC Championship game with Kansas City a reality.

Bengals 24 Bills 27

Dallas Cowboys (13-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (14-4): 6:30 PM EST on Fox

From 1992-1994, the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers met in the NFC Championship Game (Dallas won the first two matchups before San Francisco won the third one). And in all three instances, the winner of that NFC title game went on to win the Super Bowl. I can't help but get a similar vibe to this one, as the Cowboys and Niners square off in the playoffs for the 2nd consecutive season (the 49ers defeated the Cowboys 23-17 in Dallas in the Wildcard round last year).

Dak Prescott came into the postseason on a serious cold streak, throwing at least one interception in seven consecutive games heading into their wildcard round matchup with the Buccaneers. However, the Cowboys quarterback bounced back with arguably the best performance of his career considering the stakes, going 25 for 33 with 305 passing yards, and 5 total TDs. 

The main question now is which version of Prescott will show up in the divisional round. Will it be the one that sliced up the Bucs defence on Monday night? Or, will it be the one that struggled with interceptions over the course of the season? Nobody really knows about that, but what we do know is that the 49ers defence is elite (1st in total defence) and will give the Cowboys offence all they can handle.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers continue to roll on offence with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy (332 passing yards, 3 TDs against Seattle last week). The 49ers have averaged 34.8 points per game since Purdy has entered the lineup. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has done a tremendous job of utilizing all of the 49ers skill players, and maximizing Purdy's skillset. 

However, Purdy hasn't really faced a defence that can consistently pressure the quarterback.. until this week. The Cowboys defence finished the season with 54 sacks, and added 2 more (along with 6 QB hits) on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offence in the previous round. The key for the Dallas defence (22nd in rushing yards allowed per game) here will be to slow down 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (119 rushing yards, one receiving TD against Seattle last week). If they can, they'll have a chance to disrupt Purdy's rhythm and possibly force some turnovers.

This will be a hard-fought, physical game between two very good teams (Dallas ranked 5th in point differential while San Francisco finished first in the same metric). I think Dallas' defence will set the tone in this one, forcing a couple of mistakes from Purdy, while Prescott will continue his elite play. Cowboys will win and set up a rubber match with the Eagles in what will be their first NFC title game since 1995.

Cowboys 31 49ers 26