Pretenders or Contenders? Breaking Down 6 of the NFL's Most Intriguing Teams
Russell Wilson #3 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates with fans after winning a Monday Night Football game against the New York Giants, Monday, Oct 28, 2024, at Acrisure Stadium, in Pittsburgh, PA. The Steelers won, 26-18. (Barry Reeger/Imagn Images)
So far during the 2024 NFL season, there have been a bunch of surprises. We have seen a bunch of teams play at an elite level and exceed preseason expectations (e.g. Minnesota Vikings). And on the other hand, we have seen teams struggle and underperform relative to expectations (e.g. New York Jets).
With that being said, as we get closer and closer to playoff football, I thought it would be a great time to do a quick check-in on some of the most interesting teams in the NFL right now. We'll take a look at six teams, three from the AFC and three from the NFC, and determine whether or not they are a serious threat to win Super Bowl 59.
Without further ado, let's start in the AFC, with a team that is looking to make the playoffs for the 12th time in the last 18 seasons.
T.J. Watt #90 of the Pittsburgh Steelers strips the ball away from Kirk Cousins #18 of the Atlanta Falcons during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept 8, 2024, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, GA. The Steelers would go on to win, 18-10. (Dale Zanine/Imagn Images)
In 2023, the Steelers won 10 games and made the postseason before falling to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC wildcard round. But coming into the season, it's safe to say that expectations for Mike Tomlin's squad were relatively modest, as their over/under win total was set at 8.5, suggesting that people were expecting the Steelers to regress in 2024.
However, as we approach the latter part of the regular season, the Steelers (as they've been prone to do under Tomlin's leadership over the last decade-plus) have blown past even the most optimistic Steelers' fan's expectations. Pittsburgh is currently 10-3 and sits two full games above the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North.
Many people (including myself) questioned Tomlin's decision to bench Justin Fields and start veteran quarterback Russell Wilson back in October. However, that decision has proven to pay off big time for the Steelers, as Wilson has played out lights out, throwing for 1,784 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, and 12 touchdown passes to just three interceptions while winning six of his seven starts.
With Wilson turning back the clock to his days with the Seattle Seahawks, combined with the fact that Pittsburgh still boasts one of the best defences in the NFL (seventh in total defence, fifth in points allowed per game), it's safe to say that the Steelers are one of the top teams in the AFC right now. Pittsburgh has not won a playoff game since 2016 and has not advanced to the Super Bowl since 2010, but this could be the year that they end up snapping both of those long droughts.
Verdict: Contenders
Green Bay Packers (9-4)
Josh Jacobs #8 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers after scoring his third touchdown of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Nov 24, 2024, at Lambeau Field, in Green Bay, WI. The Packers won, 38-10. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Year two of the Jordan Love era in Green Bay has been a huge success so far this season. Heading into Week 15, the Packers have a 9-4 record and if the playoffs began today, they would be the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs. Led by Love (2,724 passing yards, 8.3 passing yards per attempt, 21 touchdown passes), and running back Josh Jacobs (1,053 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns), Green Bay's offence (sixth in total offence, seventh in points scored per game) has been very dynamic all season long. Combine that with first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's opportunistic defence (tied for third in takeaways) led by ball-hawking safety Xavier McKinney (seven interceptions, tied for first in the NFL), and it's safe to say that the Packers are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL right now.
However, there is one main concern with head coach Matt LaFleur's team, and that is their inability to beat the other top teams in the NFC. Green Bay's four losses this season have come against the Detroit Lions (12-1) twice, the Minnesota Vikings (11-2), and the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2). The Packers have lost those four games by a combined 20 points, so it's not like they can't compete with those elite teams. But there is definitely a case to be made that the Packers are merely a good team, not a great one.
With that being said, last year's Packers team was just a few plays away from making an NFC Championship Game appearance in Love's first season as a starter. And this year's iteration is more talented and more experienced. If Green Bay can clean up some of their situational football mistakes, then I could see them playing in New Orleans on February 9th as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
Verdict: Contenders
Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers and Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh before an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, Sept 8, 2024, at SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA. The Chargers won in Harbaugh's debut coaching with the Chargers, 22-10. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
A year after finishing with a 5-12 record (which included the most lopsided loss in franchise history), the Chargers have bounced back big-time so far in 2024, as they have an 8-5 record right now and currently possess the sixth seed in the AFC. In his first year coaching in L.A., Jim Harbaugh is doing exactly what he did during his previous stops at Stanford, San Francisco, and Michigan; turn around the program and win a lot of football games. The winning formula for Harbaugh's team is simple enough: suffocate opponents on defence (The Chargers have allowed the fewest points in the NFL so far this season) and lean on Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert (2,764 passing yards, 14 touchdown passes, one interception) on offence.
However, I'm not entirely sold on the idea of this team making a deep playoff run in the AFC this season, with the main reason why being that their offence is arguably the worst out of all of the teams in the AFC playoff race. Heading into Week 15, the Chargers rank 24th in total offence, 25th in passing yards per game, and 20th in points per game. Although they do have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Herbert, L.A.'s passing attack has left a lot to be desired due to their lack of playmaking receiving options. Rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey (58 catches, 815 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns) has played well, but the Chargers don't have another reliable wide receiver for Herbert to throw the ball to.
All in all, with Harbaugh and Herbert leading the way, I do think that the Chargers will make the playoffs this season and they will be a tough out when they get there, but ultimately, their inability to consistently throw the football down the field with success keeps me from saying that they could make it to the Super Bowl this year.
Verdict: Pretenders
Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks prepares to throw the ball during an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Sept 8, 2024, at Lumen Field, in Seattle, WA. The Seahawks beat the Broncos, 26-20. (Joe Nicholson/Imagn Images)
Mike Macdonald's first year as a head coach in Seattle has certainly been an interesting one thus far. After starting the season with a 3-0 record, the Seahawks lost five of their next six games to drop to 4-5. Since coming off on their bye week in Week 10, Seattle has won four straight games, with three of those wins coming against the 49ers and the Cardinals (twice), putting the team in prime position to win the division (The Seahawks currently have a 69.2 chance to win the NFC West) for the first time since 2020 and the right to host a playoff game in the wildcard round.
The biggest catalyst for Seattle's recent turnaround has been their defence. During their four-game winning streak, the Seahawks have allowed just 13.8 points per game. Last season, Macdonald helped the Baltimore Ravens finish with the best defence in the NFL, and over the last few weeks, it looks like his vision for his defence in Seattle is really starting to take shape.
Offensively, this is a team with a lot of high-end talent. Quarterback Geno Smith currently ranks second in passing yards (3,474) and fifth in completion percentage (69.5) despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The running game behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet has struggled this season (The Seahawks rank 27th in rushing yards per game), but they're coming off their best game of the season when the team ran for 176 yards against the Cardinals last week. And out wide, DK Metcalf (54 catches, 812 receiving yards) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (75 catches, 911 receiving yards) have combined to make up one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.
The Seahawks do a tough schedule to close out the regular season, with games against the Packers, Vikings, Bears (on the road), and the Rams (more on them in a bit). I think that if Seattle can find their way into the postseason, they can do some real damage, led by that aforementioned talent and Macdonald's prowess as a defensive coach.
Verdict: Contenders
Houston Texans (8-5)
C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans throws a pass under pressure during an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Sept 8, 2024, at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. The Texans defeated the Colts, 29-27. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
The Houston Texans have had a very weird 2024 campaign so far. Coming into the season, the Texans were considered to be one of the few teams in the league that could knock off Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Back in May, I even said that the Texans are the top threat to the Chiefs' reign in the AFC.
On the surface level, it seems like the Texans are just fine. They currently sit atop the AFC South with an 8-5 record and seem poised to win the division for the second consecutive year. But that's exactly the problem: The Texans are just fine, instead of being great like they were expected to be this year.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud is currently mired in a sophomore slump. After throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions during an incredible rookie season, Stroud has regressed in 2024, as he has thrown for just over 3,000 yards, 15 touchdown passes and nine interceptions through 13 games this season. A variety of different factors have contributed to this, including below-average play from the offensive line and injuries to two of Stroud's top receiving weapons. Additionally, with teams now having a full season's worth of tape on Stroud, opposing defensive coordinators are now able to do a better job of identifying and taking away Stroud's preferred way to play while simultaneously exposing his weaknesses as a young NFL quarterback.
As a result of this, while Houston's defence has remained solid (fifth in total defence) under head coach DeMeco Ryans, their offence has taken a dip from 12th to 18th in total yards gained per game. That level of play on offence simply won't cut it in January when the Texans will have to navigate through a tough playoff gauntlet in the AFC that also features elite quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.
Verdict: Pretenders
Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
Puka Nacua #17 of the Los Angeles Rams during an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec 8, 2024, at SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA. The Rams beat the Bills in a thriller, 44-42. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Never count out a Sean McVay-coached team.
Back on October 6, the Rams lost to the Packers, 24-19, and saw their record drop to 1-4 as they headed into their bye week. At that time, it looked like the Rams were in huge trouble, as they had just a 9.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 7.2% chance of winning the NFC West. However, as it turns out, all McVay's squad needed was a chance to get healthy.
Since the return of All-Pro wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp from injury in Week 8, the Rams' offence has been great, averaging 26.2 points per game. During that span, quarterback Matthew Stafford has played at an elite level, throwing 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions while making absolutely absurd throws like this (also, shoutout to Nacua making a crazy catch here as well). Stafford, Kupp, and McVay were the pillars of this franchise when they won Super Bowl 56 a few years ago, so it's safe to say that they know exactly what it takes to win when it matters most late in the season.
Still, though, there is one thing that gives me some pause when it comes to this Rams team: their defence. The Rams currently have the 27th-ranked defence in the NFL. There are 32 teams in the league. So obviously, this is not a good thing.
At 7-6, the Rams are only one game behind the Seahawks for the division lead and because they already beat the Seahawks back in Week 9 in Seattle, all the Rams have to do is win the rest of their games (which includes what is shaping up to be a true season-defining game against the Seahawks during the final week of the regular season) and they'll win the NFC West and host a playoff game in the wildcard round. And if they get in, it'll be hard to bet against a quarterback and head coach who have already proven that they can win the whole thing. But I just don't foresee a world in which this Rams team goes on the road in the later rounds of the postseason and beats Detroit or Philadelphia to get to the Super Bowl unless their defence dramatically improves over the next few weeks.
Verdict: (reluctantly) Pretenders
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