Offseason Chronicles: Who is the Biggest Threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC?

 

C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans and Tank Dell #3 of the Houston Texans celebrate during an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, September 24, 2023, at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL. (Melina Myers/USA TODAY Sports)

As the 2024 NFL offseason rolls on and teams prepare for organized team activities (OTAs) that will begin later this month, there's one big question on the minds of fans, analysts, and experts around the NFL: Is there anyone who can stop Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs?

Since Mahomes took over as the franchise quarterback in Kansas City back in 2018, the Chiefs have made it to six consecutive AFC Championship games and four Super Bowls, winning three of them. By defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII this past February, the Chiefs became the first team since the 2003-04 Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champions. To make a long story short, the Chiefs have replaced the Patriots as the most dominant team in the NFL over the past several years. It remains to be seen if anybody can knock Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid, and company off their perch.

However, there are a few teams that, on paper, could pose a threat to the Chiefs' dominance in the AFC. In this article, I am going to name my top three teams in the AFC that have the best chance to prevent Mahomes and the Chiefs from becoming the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. First, let's start with the team that has the longest active playoff drought in the NFL.

#3. New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers #8 of the New York Jets during an NFL preseason game against the New York Giants, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

You could make the argument that out of all 32 teams in the NFL, the New York Jets have the highest boom or bust potential.

Just over a year ago, New York made a blockbuster trade with the Green Bay Packers to acquire future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With the addition of Rodgers combined with an elite defence, the Jets immediately became looked at as one of the top favourites to win Super Bowl LVIII. I also pegged the Jets as the favourites to win the AFC East and make a run at the Super Bowl when news of the Rodgers trade broke. Unfortunately for Gang Green, Rodgers tore his Achilles just four snaps into their season opener against the Buffalo Bills. And while the Jets' defence still played at a very high level during the rest of the season, it wasn't enough to lift the team to a playoff appearance, as the offence mightily struggled, averaging just 15.8 points per game (29th in the NFL).

The good news, however, for the Jets is that Rodgers should be a full-go for OTAs with no restrictions. Additionally, general manager Joe Douglas made a concentrated effort to improve his team's much-maligned offensive line, signing future Hall of Fame left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses in free agency. Douglas also made a prudent decision during this year's NFL Draft, selecting tackle Olumuyia Fashanu with the 11th overall pick, which will add some much-needed depth for New York's front five. Furthermore, the Jets also signed wide receiver Mike Williams back in March to a one-year deal. If healthy (and that's a big if), Williams will pair up with star wideout Garrett Wilson to give Rodgers a dynamic pass-catching duo to throw to. 

On the other side of the ball, the Jets traded for edge rusher Haason Reddick, who has notched double-digit sacks in each of the last four seasons. The addition of an All-Pro player like Reddick will make New York's pass rush even more potent and dangerous to go up against.

The pressure that is on this Jets team entering this season is massive. If they flop, there's a very good chance that Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will be fired. However, if Rodgers can return to playing at an elite level (or even merely a good one), this is a Jets team that can legitimately knock off the Chiefs in 2024.

#2. Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

The Ravens came this close to dethroning the Chiefs this past January, losing in a low-scoring slugfest in the AFC Championship game. Similarly to the Jets, the Ravens are led by a multiple-time MVP quarterback by the name of Lamar Jackson. However, unlike Rodgers (who will turn 41 in December), Jackson is in the prime of his career at 27 years old and seems to have many years of elite-level play in store.

After dealing with injuries that cut his season short in 2021 and 2022, the man known as "Action Jackson" stayed healthy and enjoyed a spectacular 2023 season, throwing for a career-high 3,678 passing yards to go along with 29 total touchdowns (24 passing, 5 rushing) while leading the Ravens to an NFL-best 13-4 record. Wide receiver Zay Flowers had a fantastic rookie season in 2023, becoming Jackson's go-to target in the passing game. All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews only played in nine games last season after suffering a cracked fibula during Baltimore's Week 10 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. He should be ready to go for this season. Furthermore, general manager Eric DeCosta made a blockbuster move by signing All-Pro running back Derrick Henry in free agency. While Henry isn't as dominant as he once was with the Tennessee Titans a few years ago, his ability to physically run over defenders combined with Jackson's electric speed will help the Ravens continue to employ one of the best-rushing offences in the NFL.

Additionally, the Ravens have one of the best defences in the league. Led by All-Pro defensive lineman Justin Madubuike, All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith, All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton (I know, there's a lot of All-Pros on this defence), Baltimore's defence allowed the fewest points per game last season (16.5). They did lose highly regarded defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, and All-Pro linebacker Patrick Queen (who signed with the bitter rival Pittsburgh Steelers in free agency), but this is still one of the top 10 defences in the NFL, with all of those players mentioned above leading the way.

To beat the Chiefs, you need to have an elite quarterback who can go toe-to-toe with Mahomes and a good defence that can slow him down. And the Ravens are certainly one of the few teams in the NFL that fit that criteria.

#1. Houston Texans

Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shakes hands with quarterback C.J. Stroud #7 before an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. (Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports)

I'm doing a lot of projecting by picking the Texans as my top threat to the Chiefs' reign in the AFC entering this season, but the potential of this young Houston squad cannot be understated. In 2023, the Texans came out of nowhere last season, shocking fans, experts, and analysts leaguewide by winning 10 games, the AFC South title, and a playoff game.

C.J. Stroud is coming off one of the greatest rookie seasons for a quarterback in NFL history, as he became just the third quarterback in league history to lead the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown/interception ratio (4.6) in the same season. The other two? That would be Tom Brady (during his record-breaking campaign in 2007) and Joe Montana in 1989. I'm not saying that Stroud will become a top-three quarterback in NFL history by the time his career comes to an end, but his rookie season was truly the stuff of legend, and the Texans have done an amazing job of surrounding him with a myraid of weapons to throw to.

Just over a month ago, Texans' general manager Cal McNair made a stunning move by pulling off a trade for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs has caught 67 touchdowns in his career and has recorded over 1,000 receiving yards in six consecutive seasons, and he will pair with young wideouts Nico Collins (1,297 receiving yards, eight touchdowns in a breakout season last year) and Tank Dell (709 receiving yards in just 11 games during his rookie season last year) to arguably form the best-receiving trio in the league. 

Additionally, McNair made a huge effort to improve a Houston defence that finished 11th in points allowed in 2023, signing All-Pro veteran edge rusher Danielle Hunter and underrated defensive lineman Denico Autry in free agency. Hunter and Autry will team up with reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. to give the Texans one of the best pass-rushing units in the NFL.

With Stroud entering just his second season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's well-renowned offensive scheme, coupled with an improved defence led by one of the best defensive minds in the league in head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have both the firepower and the coaching that's necessary to not just challenge Mahomes and Co., but snatch the AFC crown from them as well.

Honourable Mention: Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs embrace after the conclusion of the AFC Championship game, Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The Bengals won, 27-24, to advance to Super Bowl LVI. (Getty Images)

I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention the Bengals as a team that could knock off Mahomes and the Chiefs. Why? Because Joe Burrow and company have already beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs before back in the 2021 AFC Championship game. Burrow is one of the league's premier quarterbacks, Ja'Marr Chase is a top-five wide receiver in the NFL, and Trey Hendrickson is one of the most underrated edge rushers in the league. However, it remains to be seen what will happen with star wide receiver Tee Higgins, who requested a trade back in April as he and the team have not been able to agree on a contract extension. With a healthy Burrow, the Bengals can't be counted out, but if they end up trading Higgins, they won't have enough firepower to take down Kansas City in 2024.