NFL Divisional Round Predictions (2025)

 

Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills embrace after an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium, in Baltimore, MD. (Getty Images/Michael Owens)

After a mostly Super Wild Card Weekend that produced only one close game, it is now officially time for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs to begin! Coming into this week's stacked slate of games, there are now just eight teams left in the playoff field with a shot at winning the Super Bowl.

This year's divisional round of the playoffs features a bunch of fascinating matchups, including a classic playoff rematch from 2019 (Texans-Chiefs), a matchup between two of the best offences in the NFC (Commanders-Lions), a showdown featuring two of the last three NFC champions (Rams-Eagles), and last but not least, a heavyweight bout between the top two MVP candidates from this season (Ravens-Bills). 

My best pick from last week was: taking the Ravens over the Steelers. This was a fairly easy pick to make. The Ravens had won four straight games while the Steelers had lost four consecutive games coming into last week's AFC wildcard playoff game. Lamar Jackson (256 total yards, two touchdown passes, 132.0 passer rating) and Derrick Henry (186 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns) dominated the game and Pittsburgh's inept offence simply couldn't keep up. Although they remain one of the most historic and prestigious franchises in the NFL, the Steelers are currently mired in mediocrity and it's safe to say that they desperately need to do something about that.

My worst from last week was: taking the Vikings over the Rams. I thought this game would come down to the wire, but instead, the Rams dominated the Vikings to advance to the divisional round. Now, with Minnesota's season over, they'll have some very important decisions to make during the offseason, including what to do at the quarterback position.

Saturday Games:

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs and C.J. Stroud embrace after an NFL football game, Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs defeated the Texans, 27-19. (2024 Perry Knots Photography)

Houston Texans (11-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (15-2): 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN/ESPN+)

After surprisingly routing the Chargers in the wildcard round, the AFC South champion Texans find themselves in the divisional round for the second consecutive year and for just the sixth time in franchise history. However, the Texans are still the only team that has never played in a conference championship game. To end that drought, Houston will have to find a way to do what no team has been able to do in three years: defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a playoff game.

Despite leading the Chiefs to a franchise record 15 wins in a single season, Mahomes didn't play at an MVP level in 2024, throwing for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns (both marks represent a career-low for Mahomes in seasons where he's played at least 16 games). Regardless, we all know that No. 15 has a tendency to rise to the occasion when it matters most, along with his partner in crime in tight end Travis Kelce (97 catches, 823 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns). However, Kansas City's biggest weakness on offence is their offensive tackles. And Houston's elite defence (which did a great job of shutting down Chargers Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert last week) is perfectly designed to take advantage of that weakness, led by Pro Bowl edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks).

On the other side of the ball, C.J. Stroud is coming off a solid performance against the Chargers (282 passing yards, one touchdown pass, one interception, 90.7 passer rating) and he'll look to play even better this week against a stout Kansas City defence (4th-fewest points allowed per game), led by All-Pro and future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Chris Jones (five sacks, nine tackles for loss). The biggest key for Houston's offence will be to get Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins (68 catches, 1,006 receiving yards, seven touchdowns during the regular season, 122 receiving yards vs the Chargers in the wildcard round) involved early and often against an average Chiefs pass defence (18th in passing yards allowed per game).

While I think the Texans had a solid season and have a bright future with Stroud leading the way, I can't bring myself to pick against Patrick Mahomes in a playoff setting. The game will likely be close (just as most games that the Chiefs have played in this season) and low-scoring, but look for the Chiefs to pull out a win and advance to the AFC Championship game for the seventh consecutive year.

The pick: Texans 17 Chiefs 24

Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, at Ford Field, in Detroit, MI. The Lions won, 36-27. (AP Photo/Lon Horwedel)

Washington Commanders (13-5) @ Detroit Lions (15-2): 8:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Who would've thought! For the first time since 2006, the Washington Commanders find themselves in the divisional round of the playoffs. But if the Commanders want to advance to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 1991, they'll have to knock off a very talented, well-coached, and gritty Detroit Lions team that has been the cream of the crop in the NFC all season long in 2024.

Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continued his excellent start to his NFL career last week in the wildcard round, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdown passes in a tightly contested win over the Buccaneers. With the help of All-Pro wide receiver Terry McLaurin (82 catches, 1,096 receiving yards, 13 receiving touchdowns during the regular season, seven catches, 89 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown vs the Buccaneers in the wildcard round) and fellow wideout Dyami Brown (five catches, 89 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown), Daniels was able to come up clutch once again for Washington and he'll look to put on a show against a vulnerable Lions defence (20th in total yards allowed per game, 30th in passing yards allowed per game).

However, it's safe to say that it will be paramount for Daniels and the Commanders' offence to put up a lot of points in this game because their defence will have to contend with the best offence in the NFL in 2024. Led by Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff (4,629 passing yards, 37 touchdown passes), Pro Bowl running back Jahmyr Gibbs (1,929 scrimmage yards, 20 total touchdowns), All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (115 catches, 1,263 receiving yards, 12 receiving touchdowns), speedy wideout Jameson Williams (58 catches, 1,001 receiving yards, receiving touchdowns), and do-it-all tight end Sam LaPorta (60 catches, 726 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns), the Lions' offence ranked second in total yards per game, first in points per game (33.2), and first in total first downs. Additionally, star running back David Montgomery (775 receiving yards, 12 rushing touchdowns) will likely return to the lineup after missing the team's final three games of the regular season due to an MCL injury, which is not good news for a Commanders defence that struggles to stop the run (30th in run defence).

All in all, the Commanders should be very proud of what they have accomplished this season. Nobody (not even the most optimistic fans of this team) saw them going to the divisional round this season. Led by Daniels, I think Washington will be one of the best teams in the NFC for a long time and they won't make it easy on Detroit. However, this Lions team is on a mission right now. And I think that the next stop on that mission is a return trip to the NFC Championship game.

The pick: Commanders 24 Lions 34

Sunday Games:

Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs for a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, at SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA. The Eagles defeated the Rams, 37-20. (AP Photo/Kyusong Gong)

Los Angeles Rams (11-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (15-3): 3:00 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

Since 2017, both the Rams and the Eagles have been two of the top teams in the NFC, combining for 163 wins, four NFC Championship victories, and two Super Bowl trophies over the last eight seasons. And on Sunday, these two talented, battle-tested teams will play each other for the right to play in this year's NFC title game.

As I previously mentioned, the Rams are coming off notching a decisive 27-9 victory over the Vikings last Monday. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Matthew Stafford was accurate and smart with the football in that game, throwing for 209 yards and two touchdown passes. Running back Kyren Williams (76 rushing yards, 4.8 yards per carry) was solid and efficient. While L.A.'s star wideout tandem of Puka Nacua (79 catches, 990 receiving yards, four total touchdowns) and Cooper Kupp (67 catches, 710 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns) didn't do much against Minnesota (they combined for six catches and 73 receiving yards during that game), they remain one of the top wide receiver duos in the NFL. They will look to have a much bigger impact in this divisional round matchup, which won't be easy to do against an elite Eagles defence (first in total defence, first in pass defence, second in points allowed per game) that is coming off a dominant performance against Jordan Love and the Packers.

In an article I wrote last month that talked about whether a team was a contender or pretender, I listed the Rams as a pretender because I didn't trust that their defence would be able to hold up against some of the top-tier offences in the NFC. After Monday's game, it looks like the Rams might be on their way to hushing me up, as they completely stifled a very talented Vikings offence, sacking Pro Bowl quarterback Sam Darnold a whopping nine times while also holding All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson to just 58 receiving yards on five catches. 

The Eagles' offence can be... weird. At times, they look unstoppable, led by their All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley (2,005 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, 119 rushing yards vs the Packers in the wildcard round). However, although they have a dynamic wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown (67 catches, 1,079 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (68 catches, 833 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns), their passing attack (29th in passing yards per game) often leaves a lot to be desired and didn't operate at a high level against Green Bay last week. Sure, in their defence, they were playing against a solid Packers pass defence and quarterback Jalen Hurts hadn't played in nearly three weeks. But at the same time, it's safe to say that if the Eagles want to win the Super Bowl this season, they must figure out a way to iron out the inconsistencies in their passing game on offence.

With the way both teams are playing right now on the defensive side of the ball (combined with the fact that it could snow on Sunday during the game, I think this will be more of a low-scoring contest. Look for Philly to sneak out a close win at home and set up what would be a highly anticipated NFC Championship game against the Lions.

The pick: Rams 20 Eagles 24

Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens runs for a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium, in Baltimore, MD. The Ravens defeated the Bills, 35-10. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

Baltimore Ravens (13-5) @ Buffalo Bills (14-4): 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)

Here. We. Go. The last game of the divisional round features a blockbuster showdown between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens travelling to Orchard Park in Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. Both Jackson and Allen were absolutely incredible in 2024, but ultimately, only one of them will move on and advance to the AFC Championship game.

Jackson played great in last week's wildcard round victory over the Steelers. Combine that with what Henry did to a pretty good Pittsburgh defence, and it's safe to say that Baltimore's rushing attack (which ranked first in the NFL this season) is a very tough one to stop. Additionally, when these two teams played each other during the regular season, the Ravens shredded the Bills with their running game, as they rushed for 271 yards on 8.0 yards per carry. If the Bills want to avoid a third straight playoff exit at home in the divisional round, their run defence (12th in the NFL) will have to find a way to at least slow down Henry and not allow him to take over the game. If Ravens Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers (who is currently doubtful to play on Sunday due to a knee injury he suffered two weeks ago) doesn't play, that could allow Buffalo to play more defenders in the box (i.e. near the line of scrimmage) to try to contain Henry and Jackson on the ground.

Meanwhile, Allen and the Bills are coming off a dominant victory over the Broncos last Sunday. In that game, Allen was superb, throwing for 272 passing yards, a whopping 10.5 yards per passing attempt, and two touchdown passes. Similar to what Baltimore did against Pittsburgh, Buffalo did an excellent job of running the football all over a great Broncos defence, rushing for 210 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. All season long, Buffalo's offence (second in points scored) has played at an elite level, led by the brilliance of Allen and their patented "everybody eats" offence. However, it won't be particularly easy for the Bills to put up a lot of points in this game, as they'll be going up against a talented Ravens defence that has played lights out over the last two months after struggling to begin the season (15.2 points allowed per game over their last eight games after giving up 25.3 points per game during their first 10 games of the season).

Regardless of who wins on Sunday, this game is shaping up to be an all-time classic. Two generational talents at the quarterback position who are both well-deserving of winning the MVP award this season facing off against each other is undoubtedly the best storyline of this year's divisional round of the playoffs. Both Jackson and Allen have yet to appear in a Super Bowl during their careers, but with a win this weekend, one of them will still have a shot at potentially rewriting the narrative that they can't win when it matters most. In a close game that will come down to the final seconds, look for Jackson to make one more play at the end to set-up a game-winning field goal for future Hall of Fame kicker Justin Tucker. Baltimore will win and set up an AFC Championship rematch with the Chiefs next week.

The pick: Ravens 27 Bills 24