NFL Championship Sunday Predictions (2025)

 

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills embrace after an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, at Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. (Getty Images)

The road to Super Bowl LIX has officially reached the home stretch. After a thrilling divisional round of the playoffs that featured some controversy, a huge upset, a historic performance, and a dramatic, memorable finish, only four teams remain in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. It is time for NFL Championship Sunday!

First, in the NFC Championship game, we have an all-NFC East battle between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are playing in the NFC title game for the second time in three seasons and for the eighth time since 2000, so it's no surprise that they are one of the league's last four teams remaining in the playoffs. But the Commanders on the other hand? Nobody expected them to make the playoffs this season, let alone the NFC Championship game. But led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, this Commanders team is red-hot and will try to do something that they haven't done since 1991: advance to the Super Bowl.

However, Washington isn't the only team playing on Sunday that will be attempting to break a three-decade Super Bowl drought. The Buffalo Bills haven't made it to the "Big Game" since 1993, but they are one win away from returning to football's grandest stage. But to get there, the Bills will have to knock off the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs--who are attempting to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls--in the AFC Championship game. Can Josh Allen finally get over the hump and defeat Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game? I can't wait to find out!

My best pick from last week was: taking the Chiefs over the Texans. Just as I predicted last week in my divisional round predictions article, the Texans played the Chiefs tough. But at the end of the day, it's never a good idea to bet against Patrick Mahomes and company in a playoff setting. Ironically, the Texans became the first team in the NFL postseason history to outgain their opponent by 100 yards, have zero turnovers and still lose the game. Brutal. The future for them though (with C.J. Stroud at quarterback and DeMeco Ryans at head coach) is still very bright.

My worst pick from last week: taking the Ravens over the Bills. I (like everybody else) couldn't foresee what the Commanders did to the NFC's top-seeded Detroit Lions last Saturday, so I won't dock myself too hard for that one. But I should've known better than to pick the Ravens, who have now lost seven of their last 11 playoff games since winning Super Bowl XLVII in 2013. I am not discrediting the Bills at all; they were the better team and they earned the right to move on, but at the same time, Baltimore was done in by a bunch of self-inflicted mistakes during that game in Buffalo and will now have the next eight months to stew over another tough playoff loss. One of these days, Lamar Jackson will get over the playoff hump, right? As a big fan of his, I certainly hope so.

Now, let's move on to the picks!

NFC Championship Game: 

Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders and Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles embrace after an NFL football game, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, at Lincoln Financial Field, in Philadelphia, PA. The Eagles won, 26-18. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Washington Commanders (14-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (16-3): 3:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

For the third time this season, the Commanders and the Eagles will play against each other. Back in Week 11 in November, the Eagles defeated the Commanders, 26-18, on "Thursday Night Football". Then, during their second meeting in December, Washington won, 36-33, to tie the season series. However, the rubber match between these two NFC East division rivals is undoubtedly the biggest one, as the winner will book a trip to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX.

Speaking of Daniels, he is playing so well right now that you could plausibly argue that he is currently producing the greatest season by a rookie in NFL history. Daniels' incredible debut campaign reached a fever pitch last week when he put on a fantastic performance against the Lions in the divisional round, as he gained 350 total yards (299 passing, 51 rushing), threw two touchdown passes, and, most importantly, didn't turn the ball over. Over his last four full games (including the playoffs), the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has thrown 12 touchdown passes to just three interceptions, showcasing a unique, rare blend of calmness and unflappability in the process. 

However, after carving up an injury-plagued Lions defence, Daniels won't have it so easy in this NFC title game against a dominant Eagles defence (first in the NFL) that followed up a shutdown performance in the wildcard round against the Packers with a solid outing against the Rams, sacking Matthew Stafford five times (including a huge takedown by Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jalen Carter late in the fourth quarter). With Commanders starting right guard Sam Cosmi suffering a season-ending injury last week, it's safe to say that Carter vs backup guard/tackle Trent Scott will be a very interesting matchup to monitor whenever the Commanders are on offence during this game.

On the other side of the ball, there is a big question waiting to be answered by Washington's defence: can they slow down Saquon Barkley? On paper, it doesn't look like they have a puncher's chance of doing that as the Commanders had the NFL's 30th-ranked run defence during the regular season and in the first two games between these two teams, Barkley rushed for 296 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and four rushing touchdowns against Washington. Last week against the Rams, Barkley showed why he is an MVP candidate this season, as he ran for an Eagles franchise-record 205 yards and two rushing touchdowns (including an iconic 78-yarder that helped salt the game away in the fourth quarter).

The Commanders' defence gave up a ton of big plays vs a great Lions offence in the divisional round (521 yards allowed), but they more than made up for that by producing five turnovers, including a game-changing pick six off of quarterback Jared Goff. During the Week 16 game between these two teams, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts left the game early in the first quarter due to a concussion and he is currently dealing with an MCL sprain heading into this NFC Championship game. It will be imperative for Washington's front seven to slow down Barkley just enough and force Hurts and an inconsistent Philly passing attack to execute consistently throughout this game.

I don't think anyone thought that the Commanders would be playing in the NFC Championship game this season, but here we are. I think this will be a close game because both teams know each other very well as division rivals and both teams are on fire right now as well; the Commanders have won seven straight games while the Eagles have won 14 of their last 15 games, with that one loss coming to the Commanders. Led by Daniels, Washington will fight valiantly on the road, but eventually, Barkley will break down that defence. Look for the Eagles to get the win at Lincoln Financial Field and get back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons. Can somebody say, "Fly, Eagles, Fly"?

The pick: Commanders 20 Eagles 30

AFC Championship Game: 

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, at Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills won, 30-21. (Gregory Fisher/Imagn Images)

Buffalo Bills (15-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (16-2): 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)

For the fourth time in five years, the Bills and the Chiefs will meet each other in the playoffs. However, the Chiefs won all three of the previous playoff matchups between these two bitter AFC rivals. On Sunday, Buffalo will attempt to buck that trend and make their long-awaited return to the Super Bowl.

The Bills clinched a spot in the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2020 when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round last week. Offensively, Bills quarterback Josh Allen was solid (147 total yards, two rushing touchdowns), but the biggest positive for Buffalo's offence in this game was that they finished the game with zero turnovers. That follows a season-long trend for the Bills, as they turned the ball over just eight times during the regular season while also leading the NFL in turnover differential (+24). It will be vital for Allen and company to continue to play a brand of clean, mistake-free football against a very well-coached, stingy Chiefs defence (fourth in points allowed per game) that is coming off a great performance last week, as they sacked Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud a whopping eight times. The matchup between Chiefs' future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Chris Jones against a very good Bills offensive line (just 14 sacks allowed during the regular season) should be a fun one to watch during this game.

Patrick Mahomes didn't have a great outing against the Texans in the divisional round (177 yards, one touchdown pass, 98.3 passer rating), but with that win, Mahomes is now tied with 49ers Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins for any quarterback in NFL history and he is still only 29 years old! Additionally, Mahomes has a track record of playing at his absolute best whenever he faces the Bills in the playoffs, as he has thrown for 918 passing yards, eight touchdown passes, and zero interceptions in three career playoff games against Buffalo.

Also, while the Chiefs' offence didn't play at an elite level this season (17th in total offence), there is one particular thing that they are exceptional at on that side of the ball: converting on third downs. This season, the Chiefs converted the most third downs in the league (111) and finished second in third-down conversion rate (48.5%). In contrast, the Bills' defence was one of the worst on third downs in 2024, as they allowed their opponents to convert on third down 43.8 per cent of the time (the fourth-worst mark in the NFL). So it's safe to say that if the Bills want to come out victorious in this game, they will need to buck a season-long trend and consistently get off the field on third down.

This is the ninth all-time matchup between Allen and Mahomes, with both players notching four wins against each other. However, as is well-documented, Allen has yet to beat Mahomes in the playoffs. I think this AFC Championship game (just like the previous two postseason matchups between these two teams) will come down to the wire. Allen will put on a show and will do everything he can to will the Bills to a win. But ultimately, I just can't pick against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs will win by the slimmest of margins at Arrowhead Stadium and keep their hopes of a three-peat alive while simultaneously crushing Buffalo's championship hopes once again.

The pick: Bills 26 Chiefs 27