Patriots vs Jets: Thursday Night Football X-Factors and Prediction

 

Aaron Rodgers #8 of the New York Jets throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Sept 15, 2024, at Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, TN. (The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network)

Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season is rapidly approaching, and to kick it off, we have a marquee matchup in the AFC East as the New England Patriots (1-1) travel on the road to take on Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets (1-1) on "Thursday Night Football".

The Patriots will try to bounce back from losing a close battle to the Seattle Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Jets will try to win their second consecutive game after they narrowly defeated the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

The Patriots have beaten the Jets in 15 out of their last 16 meetings. Can rookie head coach Jerod Mayo help the Pats continue that level of dominance over the Jets? Or will Rodgers help New York turn the tide in this AFC East rivalry? Let's take a look at three key X-factors and which team I think will improve their record to 2-1.

X-Factor #1: Rhamondre Stevenson vs Jets run defence

Rhamondre Stevenson #38 of the New England Patriots runs with the football during an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Sept 24, 2023, at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, NJ. (AL Bello/Getty Images)

If there's one certainty with the New England Patriots offence, it's that they are going to run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball some more. Through the first two games of the season, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been operating as the workhorse of the offence, as his 46 carries are tied for the third-most in the NFL so far this season. Stevenson has been efficient on those carries too, running for 201 yards at a solid clip of 4.4 yards per carry.

On the flip side, the Jets run defence (which ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed in 2023) has struggled so far once again in 2024, giving up 124 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks of the season. And now, New York will have to try to shore up its run defence without the services of edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II, who tore his Achilles during last week's win over the Titans. It's safe to say that Jets general manager Joe Douglas should do everything in his power to resolve the bizarre Haason Reddick situation as soon as possible.

Led by All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, the Jets are very good at stopping the pass. But if Stevenson can help get the Patriots' running game going early and set up play-action passes for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, Gardner's presence will essentially be insignificant, which wouldn't be a good thing for the Jets. New York's front seven will have to find a way to slow down Stevenson and force Brissett into must-pass situations.

X-Factor #2: Christian Gonzalez vs. Garrett Wilson

Christian Gonzalez #0 of the New England Patriots tackles Ja'Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept 8, 2024, at Paycor Stadium, in Cincinnati, OH. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)

This will undoubtedly be a key matchup to watch throughout the game. The Patriots selected Gonzalez with the 17th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Last season, the man they call "Gonzo" played at an elite level during his rookie season, posting 17 tackles, one sack, three pass deflections, and one interception. Unfortunately, during the team's Week 4 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, Gonzalez suffered a torn labrum and a dislocated shoulder, which sidelined him for the rest of the season. However, upon his return this season, Gonzalez has managed to pick up right where he had left off; in Week 1, he held Cincinnati Bengals All-Pro wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase to three catches for 14 yards.

In this game, Gonzalez will have another tough task on his hands, as he will try to slow down Jets star wideout Garrett Wilson. Although Wilson has yet to have a dominant game so far this season (six catches for 60 yards in Week 1, four catches for 57 yards in Week 2), he is still a very good wide receiver who seems to be developing chemistry with Rodgers throwing him the ball. If Gonzalez can help keep Wilson under wraps, that would bode well for the Patriots defence slowing down the Jets offence since Wilson is one of their top playmakers.

X-Factor #3: Patriots defence vs Breece Hall

Breece Hall #20 of the New York Jets runs with the football during an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Sept 15, 2024, at Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, TN. (Steve Roberts/Imagn Images)

Speaking of the Jets' top playmakers, the Patriots might be in big trouble when it comes to this matchup as they go up against Jets star running back Breece Hall. While Hall hasn't had a great start to the season so far, he is still one of the most talented offensive weapons in the NFL, both as a runner and as a receiver.

While the Patriots have great at stopping the run thus far in 2024 (58 rushing yards allowed per game, 2nd best in the NFL), they will face a major challenge going forward without their defensive captain Ja'Whaun Bentley, who tore his left pectoral muscle during last week's game against the Seahawks. Without Bentley patrolling the middle of the field for the Pats' defence, it wouldn't be surprising if Hall ends up enjoying a standout game tonight.

Prediction:

It's obviously very early in the season, but this is definitely a huge game for both squads. The Patriots, led by a rookie head coach, are not expected to compete for a playoff berth this season, but a road win over a future Hall of Fame quarterback and a talented Jets team on a short week may cause fans and experts to begin to change their minds about that. Meanwhile, as we all know, the Jets have very high expectations in 2024, expectations that, if not reached, will likely result in changes with the coaching staff and the front office as well.

The Jets have not defeated the Patriots at home since 2015, when then-Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick led his team to victory over Tom Brady by throwing a game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Eric Decker in overtime. With Rodgers at the helm (and ready to play his first full home game as a member of the Jets), look for Gang Green to win in what will be a low-scoring affair. Can somebody say, "J-E-T-S, Jets!, Jets!, Jets!"?

Patriots 16 Jets 23