Bills vs Dolphins: Thursday Night Football X-Factors and Prediction

 

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills runs for a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct 1, 2023, at Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills defeated the Dolphins, 48-20. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season is on the horizon and to start off this week's slate of games, we have a very intriguing matchup that will be on display as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (1-0) travel to South Florida to take on Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (1-0) in an AFC East division rivalry contest on "Thursday Night Football".

Both teams are coming off victories in Week 1, with the Bills narrowly holding off the Arizona Cardinals, 34-28, while the Dolphins managed to bounce back from a slow start to knock off the Jaguars with a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.

This is the first meeting between these two AFC East rivals this season. Last year, the Bills swept the season series against the Dolphins, including during the final week of the regular season in Week 18 when Buffalo went on the road and defeated Miami to win the division for the fourth consecutive season.

The Bills are 11-1 in their last 12 matchups against the Dolphins. Can Allen and Co. continue their dominance over Miami? Or will Tua help the 'Fins get an early lead in the AFC East race? Let's take a look at three key X-factors and who I think will get the victory tonight.

X-Factor #1: Bills pass rush vs. Dolphins offensive line

Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins gets sacked by Greg Rousseau #50 of the Buffalo Bills during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct 1, 2023, at Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

During the offseason, the Dolphins lost two starters on the offensive line in guard Robert Hunt (who signed a massive deal in free agency with the Carolina Panthers), and center Connor Williams (who signed with the Seattle Seahawks in early August). However, during their Week 1 game against the Jaguars (who have a very solid pass rush led by Pro Bowl edge rusher Josh Allen), Miami's offensive line performed very well, allowing just three sacks and QB hits respectively on Tagovailoa. But this week, they'll be going up against a Bills defence that recorded 54 sacks last season (4th most in the NFL). Bills edge rusher Gregg Rousseau sacked Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray three times last week and always seems to play at his best when facing off against the Dolphins. If he and the rest of the Bills' defensive line can generate constant pressure on Tagavailoa throughout the contest and make him uncomfortable in the pocket, that could lead to some turnovers for Buffalo's defence and extra opportunities to score for Allen and the offence.

X-Factor #2: Bills wide receivers/tight ends vs. Dolphins defensive backs

Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Jan 7, 2024, at Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami, FL. The Bills would win, 21-14 to claim their fourth straight AFC East division title. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

The Bills' receiving corps underwent massive changes during the offseason, with the team trading All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and letting fellow wide receiver Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Now, Josh Allen's top weapons in the passing game include first-round rookie Keon Coleman (four catches, 51 yards in Week 1), slot receiver Khalil Shakir (three catches, 42 yards, one touchdown in Week 1), and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, who caught 73 passes during his rookie season last year, but only had one catch on two targets in last week's game against the Cardinals. Look for Allen to target him more frequently in tonight's game.

Meanwhile, on the flip side of things, the Dolphins have a very talented secondary, led by All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, star safety Jevon Holland, and his starting safety partner Jordan Poyer (who played the last seven seasons as a member of the Bills). It will be interesting to see if they can prevent Buffalo's receivers from creating separation and disrupt Allen's throwing lanes. Allen threw 18 interceptions last season, which was the second most in the NFL, so Ramsey and Co. will presumably have a few chances to make some plays on the ball in this game.

X-Factor #3: Bills defensive backs vs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle

Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates a touchdown with a handcuff celebration with teammate Jaylen Waddle #17 of the Miami Dolphins during an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Sept 8, 2024, at Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami, FL. (Sam Navarro/Imagn Images)

Buffalo's top two cornerbacks are Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford. Douglas, after being traded from the Packers to the Bills during last season's trade deadline, played at a very high level in nine games with the Bills in 2023, notching four interceptions and eight pass deflections while allowing a 38.6 passer rating in coverage. Meanwhile, Benford recorded two interceptions and 10 pass breakups last season. 

Both players will face a massive challenge in this game, as they go up against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combine to make up arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. In Week 1 against the Jaguars, the two speedy wide receivers combined for 12 catches for 239 receiving yards and one touchdown. Last season, Hill caught 119 passes for a league-high 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, while Waddle caught 72 passes for 1,014 receiving yards and three touchdowns. There's no stopping Hill and Waddle, but if Douglas and Benford can at least contain them, that would go a long way in helping Buffalo come away with the victory.

Prediction:

This is shaping up to be a very competitive game. Both the Bills and Dolphins are among the current favourites to win the Super Bowl and both have excellent head coaches in Sean McDermott and Mike McDaniel respectively.

Under McDaniel, the Dolphins are 4-0 at home in the month of September, averaging nearly 33 points per game. I think they'll have some success in this one too, but with their star running back tandem of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane dealing with injuries, it will be more difficult than usual for Miami to put up a lot of points. Additionally, in a coin-flip game like this, I have to side with the team that has the better quarterback. And while Tua Tagovailoa is a good quarterback, Josh Allen is on another tier. Look for the Bills to get a close victory on the road and improve to 2-0 on the season.

Bills 26 Dolphins 24