NFL Week 18 Predictions

 

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

17 weeks have come and gone in the 2023 NFL regular season. 256 games have been played so far this season, and now, there are only 16 games left to play before the playoffs begin.

Week 18 is filled with some big-time matchups, including a de facto playoff game between the Texans and the Colts, and a battle between the Bills and the Dolphins for the AFC East crown. 

Let's get to the picks!

Saturday Games:

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3): 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)

The Steelers come into this game on a two-game winning streak, and if they win on Saturday against the Ravens, they'll have a 66 per cent chance of making the playoffs (although they can also get into the playoffs even with a loss). Meanwhile, the Ravens have already clinched the number-one seed in the AFC and they will be resting numerous players, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, the MVP favourite going into the final week of the regular season. Pittsburgh has won three straight games against the Ravens in Baltimore, and behind backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, they will win here to make it four straight road victories over their hated AFC North rivals.

Steelers 20 Ravens 17

Houston Texans (9-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (9-7): 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)

The equation is simple for both of these AFC South teams: Win, and you're in the playoffs. Lose, and your season is over.

These two squads faced off against each other all the way back in Week 2 in a game that saw the Colts win 31-20 in Houston, but both of these teams are completely different. Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has enjoyed one of the greatest rookie seasons ever for a quarterback, and that first game against Indianapolis was just the second game of his career. Meanwhile, Colts backup quarterback Gardner Minshew has played well this season.

Both teams are pretty evenly matched, and they are both led by rookie head coaches who have done an amazing job of getting their respective franchises back to relevancy. In a high-stakes game like this, it makes sense to take the team with the better quarterback, and that's the Texans. Houston will beat Indy on the road and snatch the AFC South away from the Jacksonville Jaguars (more on them in a bit).

Texans 30 Colts 23

Sunday Afternoon:

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) @ Tennessee Titans (5-11): 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

With a win, the Jaguars will clinch the AFC South for the second consecutive season. However, with a loss, there are multiple scenarios that the Jags could find themselves in; one that includes them missing the playoffs. That would be a monumental collapse, considering the team was sitting at 8-3 with a chance to get the number-one seed in the AFC just a month ago. 

Meanwhile, the Titans have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and there's a solid chance that this game will mark the end of an era for Titans football, as this could be the last game for quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry in a Titans uniform.

However, even though Henry clearly isn't the same player he used to be, he's had some amazing moments against the Jaguars throughout his career. I say he adds one more on Sunday, as Tennessee (coupled with me predicting a Steelers win over the Ravens) knocks Jacksonville out of playoff contention.

Jaguars 20 Titans 24

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) @ New Orleans Saints (8-8): 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Both of these NFC South rivals still have a chance to make the playoffs. Both teams would clinch the NFC South if they win this game and if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers. The Saints could also snatch one of the available wildcard spots with a win over Atlanta and losses by the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.

Atlanta beat the Saints earlier this season back in November, but they have been playing very poorly as of late, as they've lost three out of their last four games. On the flip side, New Orleans kept their season alive last week with a convincing win over the Buccaneers. 

Saints quarterback Derek Carr will string back-to-back good performances and help his squad win at home and give themselves a chance at making the playoffs.

Falcons 21 Saints 23

Minnesota Vikings (7-9) @ Detroit Lions (11-5): 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Vikings are technically still alive in the playoff race, but they're going to have to win this game and get a TON of help to get in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Lions have already clinched the NFC North, and they will host a playoff game in Detroit next week for the first time in 30 years.

After losing to the Cowboys last week in a game that had a very controversial ending, look for Jared Goff and the Lions' offence to come out firing out of the gates at home. Detroit will score 40 points in a game for the fourth time this season, and officially eliminate Minnesota from playoff contention. No Minneapolis Miracle here for the Vikings.

Vikings 24 Lions 41

Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-8): 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

This is one of the few games on the Week 18 schedule that will have no bearing on the playoff picture. The Browns have already clinched a playoff berth, and they are locked into the fifth seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Bengals (who came into this season as one of the top Super Bowl contenders) were eliminated from playoff contention last week after losing to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, as the loss of franchise quarterback Joe Burrow was just too much to overcome for Cincy.

The Bengals are 0-5 this season against AFC North competition. In a game that will be filled with backup players, look for the home team to play hard in front of their fans, and finish the season strong.

Browns 14 Bengals 20

New York Jets (6-10) @ New England Patriots (4-12): 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Another game that has zero playoff implications. This has been a lost season for the Jets, due to the season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers back in Week 1. But New York has also lost 15 consecutive games to the Patriots, and you just know that the players and coaches would love to end that streak. On the flip side, this could be the last game for the Pats with head coach Bill Belichick leading the way. Nobody knows what will happen with Belichick after the season is over, and the speculation over what the future Hall of Fame coach decides to do will certainly be one of the juiciest stories during the NFL offseason.

This promises to be an ugly game, as both the Jets (31st in total offence) and the Patriots (28th in total offence) will continue to struggle to score in bad weather conditions. However, New England (knowing that this could be Belichick's last game as a coach) will pull away in the end and, perhaps, send out arguably the greatest figure in franchise history with a win.

Jets 13 Patriots 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) @ Carolina Panthers (2-14): 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

For the second straight week, the Buccaneers have the opportunity to clinch a playoff berth and lock up the NFC South for the third consecutive season. Tampa Bay fell flat on their faces at home last week against New Orleans. But the Panthers are bad. Like really bad.

Baker Mayfield and Co. will bounce back and beat Carolina on the road to win the division. That means the Saints (who I predicted to beat the Falcons) would now need the Packers and the Seahawks to lose to make the playoffs.

Buccaneers 31 Panthers 13

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

This is another game that has zero playoff implications as the Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC, while the Chargers have already been eliminated from playoff contention. And since they are locked into the third seed, Kansas City will be resting most of their starters, including Patrick Mahomes, as they gear up for what they hope is a long playoff run. 

The Chargers have lost four straight games, but they've been very competitive in their last two contests, and they are at home. Backup quarterback Easton Stick will have a solid outing against the Chiefs' backup defence and lead L.A. to a close win to close out the season.

Chiefs 16 Chargers 20

Los Angeles Rams (9-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4): 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Both of these NFC West teams have clinched playoff berths; the Rams will be either the sixth or the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs and they will be playing next week on Super Wild Card Weekend. While the 49ers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

While the Rams will resting some of their key players (including quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Kyren Williams), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is planning on playing most of his starters in this game (except for Pro Bowl quarterback Brock Purdy). In a matchup between two former top-three first-round picks (Carson Wentz for the Rams and Sam Darnold for the 49ers), give me the Niners in a close one.

Rams 20 49ers 24

Denver Broncos (8-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-9): 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Both the Broncos and the Raiders have already been eliminated from playoff contention. But the Raiders have been playing better football as of late. Look for Las Vegas to finish the season off strong at home led by interim head coach Antonio Pierce (who is trying to make the case to be the full-time bench boss in Vegas). Sean Payton's debut season with Denver ends on a sour note.

Broncos 13 Raiders 23

Seattle Seahawks (8-8) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-12): 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Just like last season, the Seahawks (after getting off to a fast start) will need to win in Week 18 against a division rival while needing a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. Seattle has beaten Arizona four consecutive times, but the Cardinals are coming off a huge upset win over the Eagles, and they are at home for this one. Cardinals running back James Connor will continue his strong level of play against Seattle's subpar run defence to give rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon's team some momentum heading into the offseason.

Seahawks 27 Cardinals 30

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) @ New York Giants (5-11): 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Eagles are really reeling heading into their regular-season finale, as they've lost four out of their last five games. They now need to beat the Giants for the second time in three weeks and hope the Dallas Cowboys lose to the Washington Commanders (a very unlikely outcome) to win the NFC East for the second consecutive season. 

The Giants have nothing to play for in this game, but just like they did during their Christmas Day matchup in Philly, they will give the Eagles their best shot. Philadelphia wins, but it's close.

Eagles 30 Giants 26

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) @ Washington Commanders (4-12): 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

For the Cowboys, it's very simple; if they win, they clinch the NFC East for the second time in three years and the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, which would give them the right to host their first two playoff games (a reminder that Dallas is 8-0 at home this season). Meanwhile, Commanders head coach Ron Rivera will likely be coaching his final game in Washington, and if the Commanders lose this game, they will officially clinch the No. 2 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The Cowboys will win in a blowout and win the division.

Cowboys 34 Commanders 18

Chicago Bears (7-9) @ Green Bay Packers (8-8): 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

It's deja vu for the Green Bay Packers. Entering the final week of the regular season, all Green Bay needs to do is defeat an NFC North rival at home to clinch a playoff berth. Only this time around, it's Jordan Love, not Aaron Rodgers, at quarterback for the Packers. 

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have already been eliminated from playoff contention. But everybody knows that Justin Fields and Co. would love nothing more than to eliminate their hated long-time rivals from playoff contention, especially considering that the Bears haven't defeated the Packers since 2018.

Both teams are coming into this season finale on a heater, as they have each won five out of their last seven games. It will be a back-and-forth affair at Lambeau Field, with Love and the Packers pulling out a close win in the final seconds.

Bears 24 Packers 27

Sunday Night:

Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5): 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

This game is for all the marbles. The winner of this game will clinch the AFC East and the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. If Miami loses, they will end up as the sixth seed in the AFC and book a trip to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in a wild-card playoff game. However, if the Bills lose, they could miss the playoffs.

After losing in an overtime thriller to the Eagles on Nov. 26, the Bills have been on fire, winning four straight games, including a close win over the Chiefs and a blowout win over the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have struggled after starting off the season with a 9-3 record, and they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the top-seeded Ravens last week in a game that saw them give up 56 points.

At this time of year, games often come down to the war of attrition. And while the Bills have suffered through numerous injuries to key players throughout the season, they've managed to successfully weather the storm up to this point. The Dolphins, however, are beginning to suffer injuries to various key players at the worst possible time, and concerns about them being able to beat good teams are definitely real.

Josh Allen will outplay Tua Tagovailoa, and help Buffalo capture the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season.

Bills 31 Dolphins 24