NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Predictions

 

Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams greet each other at the coin toss before an NFL football game between the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Getty Images)

The NFL regular season has come and gone, and the highly anticipated 2024 NFL playoffs are ready to begin! The last four months have been filled with crazy, fun, sloppy, and unpredictable football. But now, only 14 teams remain in the hunt for the coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Will the Kansas City Chiefs become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003-04 New England Patriots? Can the team they beat in last year's Super Bowl, the Philadelphia Eagles, find a way to get back on track? And can the Dallas Cowboys finally make a deep playoff run for the first time in nearly three decades? All of these questions will be answered in the ensuing weeks, and it will be so exciting to see how everything shakes out in the end.

There are some amazing matchups to kick off this year's postseason, including a renewal of one of the NFL's greatest rivalries (Packers-Cowboys), a former Super Bowl-winning quarterback facing off against a quarterback making his first career playoff start (Browns-Texans), and Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff facing off against their former teams (Rams-Lions).

Last year, I went 3-3 with my wild-card round predictions, so hopefully, I can do better this time around.

Teams on bye week: Ravens, 49ers

Saturday Games:

Joe Flacco #15 of the Cleveland Browns attempts a pass during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. (Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports)

Cleveland Browns (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7): 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

These two teams faced off against each other back in Week 16 on Christmas Eve. The Browns won that game, 36-22, but Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud didn't play in that contest due to a concussion. 

Stroud is coming off a fantastic rookie season, throwing for 4,103 yards, and 23 touchdown passes while throwing just 5 interceptions. Third-year wide receiver Nico Collins had a breakout season with Stroud throwing him the ball, catching 80 passes for 1,297 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Houston's offence finished the season ranked 12th in total offence, and seventh in passing yards per game, but they'll be taking on a stout Browns defence in this one. Cleveland's defence ranks first in total defence, passing yards allowed per game, and sixth in sacks, led by All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett (14 sacks).

On the flip side of the ball, the Browns' offence is led by Super Bowl 47 MVP quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco has gone from sitting on the couch to slinging touchdown passes on the field. The willy veteran led Cleveland to a 4-1 record over the last month of the regular season while throwing for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdown passes (although he also threw eight interceptions). Pro Bowl wide receiver Amari Cooper (72 catches, 1,250 yards, 5 touchdowns in 2023) absolutely torched the Texans in the first meeting, catching 11 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. Houston's defence (14th in total defence) will need their talented rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (seven sacks) and their pass rush to bother Flacco and force him into mistakes, or else a repeat performance from Week 16 will take place.

This will be a back-and-forth contest at NRG Stadium. Flacco will continue to air it out and make big plays with his arm while the Cleveland defence stifles Stroud just enough to give the Browns their second playoff win since 1994. January Joe strikes again.

Browns 27 Texans 24

Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, GER. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)

Miami Dolphins (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): 8:00 p.m. ET (streaming on Peacock)

This wild-card game is a rematch from Week 9, where the Chiefs defeated the Dolphins 21-14 in Germany. While the Dolphins lost that game, they went on a three-game winning streak afterwards before losing two out of their last four games, including last week's loss to the Bills that saw them cough up the AFC East division title.

Miami's offence was one of the best in the NFL in 2023, finishing first in total offence, sixth in rushing yards per game, and second in points scored. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards (4,624), and threw 29 touchdown passes during the season. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill (119 catches, 1,799 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (72 catches, 1,014 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns) make up one of the best wideout duos in the league. Hill (who is the first wide receiver to post back-to-back seasons of 1,700+ receiving yards) will be making his highly anticipated return to Kansas City, where he played his first six seasons in the NFL. However, it won't be easy for Hill to have a big game against his former team, as the Chiefs have a very good defence that ranks second in the league in points allowed per game and in sacks.

Patrick Mahomes had a down year by his standards in 2023. The reigning Super Bowl MVP threw for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns, but he also threw a career-high 14 interceptions. For the first time since 2014, the Chiefs' offence finished outside the top 10 in points scored, and they also led the league in dropped passes. Additionally, future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce (93 catches, 984 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns) didn't record 1,000 receiving yards in a season for the first time since 2015. Fortunately for K.C., they're catching the Dolphins' defence at the perfect time. Miami ranked 10th in total defence, but they're dealing with a bunch of injuries on that side of the ball, so Mahomes and Co. should have some success in this one, especially if they feed the football to running back Isiah Pacheco (1,140 total yards, nine total TDs) consistently.

This game is going to be played in super cold temperatures, which heavily favours the Chiefs. Tagavailoa and the Dolphins have really struggled over the years in cold-weather games, and Miami is 1-5 against teams with a winning record in 2023, with a -91 point differential in those six games. Mahomes and the Chiefs will win at home, and advance to the divisional round of the playoffs.

Dolphins 17 Chiefs 24

Sunday Games:

Josh Allen #17 and Gabriel Davis #13 of the Buffalo Bills celebrate after Allen throws a touchdown pass to Davis during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. (Getty Images)

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6): 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

A month ago, the Bills sat at 6-6, and it looked like they were going to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Now, Buffalo comes into wild-card weekend as the hottest team in in the NFL on a five-game winning streak. 

The Steelers come on their own winning streak, as they won three straight games (and got some help) to punch their ticket to the postseason. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph (74.3 completion percentage, 719 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes in three games) has played very well under center and will get the start for Pittsburgh in this one. Second-year wide receiver George Pickens (63 catches, 1,140 receiving yards, 18.1 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns) has really stepped up his play recently, and running backs Najee Harris (1,205 total yards, 8 touchdowns) and Jaylen Warren (1,104 total yards, 4 touchdowns) have been one of the best backfield duos in the league. Buffalo's defence has played well as of late, and they've been solid all year long, so it won't be easy for Pittsburgh to move the ball consistently on the road in this game.

The Steelers suffered a huge blow last week when All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain during their Week 18 win over the Ravens. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 19, becoming the first player in NFL history to lead the league in sacks in three different seasons, so it's safe to say that Pittsburgh will miss him not being out there for this playoff game, especially considering that they are going up against one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen. Allen (44 total touchdowns) does have a tendency to get wild (evidenced by his league-leading 22 giveaways), but he is also undoubtedly one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The Steelers will also have to contend with Pro Bowl running back James Cook (1,567 total yards, 6 total TDs) and All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs (107 catches, 1,183 receiving yards, 8 TDs).

As always, Mike Tomlin has done an excellent job of coaching and leading the Pittsburgh Steelers. But ultimately, his squad won't be able to win a playoff game this season. The Bills will win comfortably at home and set up another Allen-Mahomes playoff battle in the divisional round.

Steelers 17 Bills 31

Ceedee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates after scoring a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (Darren Lee/CSM/Alamy Live News)

Green Bay Packers (9-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5): 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

For the ninth time in NFL history, the Packers and the Cowboys will meet in the playoffs. Green Bay has won each of the last two playoff meetings in dramatic fashion, but that was when they had Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Now, first-year starter Jordan Love is under center for the green and gold, playing in his first career playoff game.

Love certainly dealt with some inconsistencies in 2023, particularly from Weeks 4-8. But since Week 9, Love has played like a top-five quarterback in the NFL. He has 21 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions over the last seven games while helping the Packers rebound from a 2-5 start to a 9-8 finish. 

What's been really impressive about Love's play this season is that he's doing all of this with a bunch of first and second-year weapons around him, all of whom are very talented and have unique skill sets. Rookie wide receivers Jayden Reed (912 total yards, 10 total touchdowns) and Dontayvion Wicks (581 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns) have been exceptional, second-year wideouts Romeo Doubs (674 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns), Christian Watson (433 total yards, 5 touchdowns, 15.1 yards per catch in nine games) and Bo Melton (211 receiving yards over the last three games) have been productive and running back Aaron Jones (three straight games with 100+ rushing yards) looks fresh and rejuvenated after coming back from a knee injury he suffered earlier in the season.

 However, the Cowboys will counter with a stout defence that leads the league in pass-rush win rate (59%), led by All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (14 sacks). Additionally, cornerbacks Daron Bland (nine interceptions, 209 interception return yards, 5 touchdowns) and Stephon Gilmore (nine pass deflections) provide lockdown coverage on the perimeter.

After leading the NFL with 15 interceptions in 2022, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott bounced back in 2023 with the best season of his career. Prescott led the league in touchdown passes (36) and he only threw nine interceptions in 2023, which should lead to him getting some MVP and All-Pro votes this season. Wide receiver Ceedee Lamb emerged as a top-three weapon in the NFL, finishing the year with a league-leading 135 catches for 1,749 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns (including at least one in each of his last nine games). The Packers' defence may not give up a bunch of points, and they have a disruptive front seven led by edge rushers Rashan Gary (9 sacks), Preston Smith (8 sacks) and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (7.5 sacks), but they struggle on a play-by-play basis.

The Packers are the youngest team to ever make the postseason since the 1974 Buffalo Bills. They have absolutely nothing to lose in this game, which puts all of the pressure on the Cowboys, who went 8-0 at AT&T Stadium this season. Prescott and Co. will rise up to the challenge at home, as Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy gets a playoff victory over his former team.

Packers 24 Cowboys 33

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams during an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions, Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Los Angeles Rams (10-7) @ Detroit Lions (12-5): 8:00 p.m. ET (NBC)

For the first time in 30 years (not a typo), the Detroit Lions are hosting a playoff game. And of course, just as the NFL scriptwriters wrote it out, the Lions will have to beat their former franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford, if they want to advance to the divisional round for the first time since 1992.

Stafford suffered through an injury-riddled 2022 season, but in 2023, the 35-year-old gunslinger stayed relatively healthy en route to enjoying a bounce-back campaign, as he threw for 3,965 yards and 24 touchdown passes. Second-year running back Kyren Williams (1,350 total yards, 15 total TDs) had an amazing season and was one of the top breakout stars of the 2023 regular season. Former Super Bowl MVP wide receiver Cooper Kupp (59 catches, 737 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns in 12 games) had a solid year, but the best player on the Rams' offence is rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua (105 catches, 1,486 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns). Nacua, a fifth-round selection, is already one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and he and Kupp will give a struggling Lions pass defence (sixth-most passing yards allowed in 2023) all they can handle. If Detroit wants to find success on that side of the ball in this one, they will need second-year Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (11.5 sacks) to have a big game.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams' defence is in for a huge challenge. The Lions finished 2023 with a top-three offence in the league. They can throw the ball very effectively, led by quarterback Jared Goff (4,575 passing yards, 30 TD passes, 12 interceptions), wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (119 catches, 1,515 receiving yards, 10 touchdown catches), and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (86 catches, 889 yards, 5 TDs), who unfortunately might miss this game with a knee injury he suffered last week. David Montgomery (1,015 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1,261 total yards, 11 total TDs) are the best running back duo in the NFL, and are the reason why Detroit ranks fifth in rushing yards per game. The Rams will try their best to pressure Goff and force him into making mistakes, and with guys such as rookie defensive lineman Kobie Turner (9 sacks), rookie edge rusher Byron Young (8 sacks), and, of course, Aaron Donald, they have the talent to do just that.

As you can see, based on the stats, both of these teams have electric offences, which means there's a good chance a lot of points will be put up on the board. In the end, Goff will get the best of Stafford, and help the Lions win their first playoff game in three decades.

Rams 31 Lions 34

Monday Night:

Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles gets hyped up before an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday, Sept. 25, 2023, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8): 8:00 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN/ESPN+)

How the mighty have fallen. The defending NFC champion Eagles recently became the first team in NFL history to start a season with a 10-1 record and not finish that season with at least 12 wins. Now, Philly has to travel on the road to take on the NFC South champion Buccaneers.

The Eagles did beat the Bucs back in Week 3, but that was a completely different team. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has really struggled recently (four touchdown passes to five interceptions over his last five games), and now, he's dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand. Philly's top wide receivers A.J. Brown (106 catches, 1,456 receiving yards, seven touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (81 catches, 1,066 receiving yards, seven touchdowns) are also dealing with injuries. But if they can go, they'll have a nice matchup against a bad Tampa Bay pass defence.

Baker Mayfield had a career year during his first (and potentially only) season as a Buccaneer in 2023, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns, while only throwing 10 interceptions. Second-year running back Rachaad White (1,539 total yards, nine total touchdowns) had a good season, but this Tampa Bay offence runs through future Hall of Fame wide receiver Mike Evans (79 catches, 1,255 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns) and wideout Chris Godwin (84 catches, 1,024 receiving yards). The Eagles have a lot of talent on defence, but they've struggled all year (26th in total defence, 30th in points allowed per game), so the Bucs should be able to air it out throughout this game.

Both teams looked bad in Week 18, but while the Buccaneers have won four out of their last five games, the Eagles have lost five out of their last six games. Philly may be the more talented team, but they are falling apart at the worst possible time. Mayfield will hit some deep shots to Evans and Hurts will continue to struggle as the Bucs end the Eagles' season much earlier than expected coming into the season.

Eagles 17 Buccaneers 27