Ranking the Top NFC Wildcard Contenders

 

Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers runs with the football during an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

Week 16 of the NFL season is on the horizon and we have a great game on our hands to kick off the week as the New Orleans Saints travel west to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a huge contest that will have major playoff implications in the NFC.

The San Francisco 49ers currently lead the conference with an 11-3 record and look like the best team in the NFL. While the defending NFC champion Eagles are sputtering down the stretch. Here are the current NFC standings:

y = clinched division

x = clinched playoff berth

Division leaders:

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) (y)

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) (x)

3. Detroit Lions (10-4)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)

Wildcard:

5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) (x)

6. Minnesota Vikings (7-7)

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-7)

In the hunt:

8. Seattle Seahawks (7-7)

9. New Orleans Saints (7-7)

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8)

11. Green Bay Packers (6-8)

Last week, I ranked the top wildcard contenders in the AFC, and now, I will be ranking the top NFC wildcard contenders with three weeks left in the regular season. Let's begin with those faltering Eagles, who have now lost three straight games.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)

Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, Monday, Dec. 18, 2023, at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

After notching a thrilling victory over the Buffalo Bills on November 26, the Eagles were sitting at 10-1 and atop the NFL standings. But since the calendar flipped to December, the reigning NFC champs have mightily struggled:

December 3rd: Lost to the 49ers, 42-19

December 10th: Lost to the Cowboys, 33-13

December 18th: Lost to the Seahawks, 20-17

After averaging 28.1 points per game during the first 11 games of the season, Jalen Hurts and Co. have averaged just 16.3 points per game during their three-game skid. The Eagles' offence has become extremely predictable, as they've relied way too much on their talent. And on the other side of the ball, they haven't been nearly as good as they were last season, which can be attributed to them losing five defensive starters from the 2022 team to free agency during the offseason.

Defensive DVOA rank in 2022: 3rd

Defensive DVOA rank in 2023: 23rd

The Eagles do have an easy schedule to close out the regular season, with three games against teams that are all under .500, and they still will win the NFC East over the Cowboys if they win out. But they have some work to do to reestablish themselves as the top dog in the NFC.

Remaining schedule: (vs Giants, vs Cardinals, at Giants)

2. Los Angeles Rams (7-7)

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports)

After suffering through an injury-riddled 2022 season that saw them win just five games, the Rams are back in playoff contention.

Led by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, L.A. currently ranks eighth in total offence and seventh in offensive DVOA. Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp and rookie sensation Puka Nacua have combined to become one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, while second-year running back Kyren Williams has enjoyed a fantastic campaign, as he currently has the fourth-most rushing yards in the league while also totaling 11 touchdowns from scrimmage thus far. Head coach Sean McVay is doing an amazing job of leading this team.

The defence isn't great, ranking 21st in defensive DVOA, but they do have some young players who have been balling out, such as Kobie Turner and Byron Young. And of course, you can't forget about Aaron Donald (who ranks first in pass rush win rate for defensive tackles even though he's being double-teamed 63 percent of the time) either.

The Rams have a huge game tonight at home against the Saints, who have the same record as them. If Stafford and Co. can take care of business in that one, they'll have a decent shot at getting into the postseason; although they also have a date with the 49ers during the final week of the regular season and assuming the 49ers will still have something to play for, that game will be anything but easy (especially considering that the Niners have beaten the Rams nine consecutive times in the regular season).

Remaining schedule: (vs Saints, at Giants, at 49ers)

3. Seattle Seahawks (7-7)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba #11 of the Seattle Seahawks catches the game-winning touchdown during an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Monday, Dec. 18, 2023, at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Before Monday night, the Seahawks' playoff hopes were on life support. They had lost four straight games coming into that NFC matchup and they absolutely needed a win over the Eagles. Led by backup quarterback Drew Lock, a win is exactly what they got.

Seattle's offence is chock full of playmakers, with guys like D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker II, and rookies in Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. But that side of the ball has struggled this season, ranking just 20th in total offence (although they do rank 12th in offensive DVOA). 

The defence has been well below average in 2023, but they are coming off a great performance against a very talented Eagles offence, and get to face the Titans, Steelers, and Cardinals next, and all three of those teams have offences that rank in the bottom 10 in total offence.

If Seattle wins out, there's a good chance that they will make the playoffs for the second straight year, and for the 11th time under head coach Pete Carroll.

Remaining schedule: (at Titans, vs Steelers, at Cardinals)

4. New Orleans Saints (7-7)

Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints during an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (Michael C Herbert/New Orleans Saints)

Coming into the season, the Saints were the favourites to win the NFC South. The team already had an elite defence, and good playmakers on offence such as running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Chris Olave. And with the addition of veteran quarterback Derek Carr in the offseason, it seemed like New Orleans had a shot to win double-digit games and maybe go on a playoff run in the NFC playoffs.

But instead, that level of success has not come to fruition in 2023. Carr's stats don't look too bad, but he and his teammates have had trouble getting on the same page consistently, and the offence in general has had trouble scoring touchdowns, ranking 21st in red zone scoring percentage (52%). And while the defence has been good again this season, it hasn't been as good, dropping from ninth in defensive DVOA in 2022 to 12th in 2023.

The easiest path to the playoffs for New Orleans is to win out. If they do, they'll win the division and be the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs. Even if the Saints lose tonight against the Rams, they'll still have a shot at making the playoffs because the NFC South is comically bad, but then they would need to win their last two games and get help in the process.

Remaining schedule: (at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs Falcons)

5. Minnesota Vikings (7-7)

Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings celebrates after catching a pass for a first down during an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports)

Fresh off a 13-win season in 2022 that also saw them winning the NFC North for the first time since 2017, the Vikings struggled to begin the 2023 season with a 1-4 record. Then, Minnesota began to turn their season around, as they won three consecutive games to get back to .500. Unfortunately, during that last game of their winning streak (a road win against the division rival Packers), Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, ending his season.

The defending NFC North champions have since gone 3-3 over the last two months, with quarterbacks Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, and Nick Mullens all getting a chance at leading the offence. In a stark reversal from last season (when the offence was great while the defence couldn't stop a nosebleed), Minnesota's defence (led by new defensive coordinator Brian Flores) has been great, and the offence (mainly due to injuries to Cousins and All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson) has been inconsistent.

The Vikings have a tough schedule to end the season, which features them playing the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions twice. It certainly won't be easy for head coach Kevin O'Connell and Co. to make a return trip to the postseason.

Remaining schedule: (vs Lions, vs Packers, at Lions)

6. Green Bay Packers (6-8)

Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions, Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023, at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like the Packers (who were 6-6 at the time) were a shoo-in to make the playoffs. They had won three straight games (including two against the Lions and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs) and had a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs after their big win against K.C. But after consecutive losses to the Giants and Buccaneers, Green Bay now only has a 22 percent chance to make the postseason with first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love under center.

Love has enjoyed a really good season thus far while throwing to a bunch of talented first and second-year wide receivers. It seems like the Packers have found their next franchise quarterback.

However, Green Bay's defence (which has eight first round-picks on that side of the ball) has really struggled this season, and they're coming off a historically bad performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. It's safe to say that embattled defensive coordinator Joe Barry needs his unit to finish the season strong if he wants to return to the Packers in 2024.

As the youngest team in the NFL, the Packers still have a 95% chance of making the playoffs IF they win their last three games. Let's see if head coach Matt LaFleur and company can get it done.

Remaining schedule: (at Panthers, at Vikings, vs Bears)

7. Atlanta Falcons (6-8)

Jessie Bates #3 of the Atlanta Falcons intercepts a pass and returns it back for a touchdown during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

After notching a wild win over the NFC South rival Buccaneers back in October, the Falcons sat at 4-3 and in first place in the division. Since that game, Atlanta has dropped five out of their last seven games. They've had massive issues at quarterback, alternating between Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.

Head coach Arthur Smith has struggled to use his top playmakers on offence throughout the season and he could be fired if the Falcons continue to sputter to end the season. That has been a really unfortunate development because Atlanta's defence has been really solid in 2023.

The Falcons can still win the NFC South, but they're going to have to win their last three games (including a tough one against the Colts on Sunday) and get some help. If everything goes their way, their Week 18 matchup against the Saints in New Orleans could be for the division crown and a playoff berth.

Remaining schedule: (vs Colts, at Bears, at Saints)

The following teams have less than a 10% chance of making the postseason, but they have yet to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention:

New York Giants (5-9):

After making the playoffs last season, the Giants have suffered from major regression in 2023. However, hometown sensation Tommy DeVito has been playing well at quarterback and will try to help New York play spoiler over the last three weeks of the season.

Remaining schedule: (at Eagles, vs Rams, vs Eagles)

Chicago Bears (5-9):

Chicago's defence has really improved over the last month since acquiring edge rusher Montez Sweat from the Washington Commanders right before the trade deadline. However, it still looks like the Bears will miss the playoffs for the 11th time in the last 14 seasons. General manager Ryan Poles will have some major decisions to make during the offseason, including on whether the quarterback-head coach duo of Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus should return. It's safe to say that whatever Poles decides to do will have massive ramifications for the franchise moving forward.

Remaining schedule: (vs Cardinals, vs Falcons, at Packers)

The following teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention entering Week 16:

Washington Commanders (4-10)

Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

Carolina Panthers (2-12)