Ranking the Top AFC Wildcard Contenders

 

Myles Garrett #95 of the Cleveland Browns sacks Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, OH. (AP Photo/Kirk Irvin)

It's crazy to think about, but the 2023 NFL playoffs are almost here! Just four weeks remain in the regular season, and there is a huge logjam in the AFC and NFC standings.

The Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, and Jacksonville Jaguars currently lead the AFC North, AFC East, AFC West, and AFC South respectively, but chaos is ensuring everywhere else in the conference with six teams currently tied with a 7-6 record. Keep in mind that there are seven playoff spots available in each conference.

Here are the current AFC standings:

Division leaders:

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

2. Miami Dolphins (9-4)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)

Wildcard:

5. Cleveland Browns (8-5)

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

In the hunt:

8. Houston Texans (7-6)

9. Denver Broncos (7-6)

10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)

11. Buffalo Bills (7-6)

So, with all of this being said, let's try to rank the top AFC wildcard contenders heading into Week 15, starting with the one team that actually seems to be pulling away from the rest of the pack.

1. Cleveland Browns (8-5)

Joe Flacco #15 of the Cleveland Browns throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, OH. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

After a 7-3 start to the season, the Browns have lost two out of their last three games, but still enter Week 15 as the number five seed in the AFC playoff picture after notching a crucial victory over the Jaguars last Sunday.

It seemed like the Browns' struggles at the quarterback position would eventually cost them a shot at making the playoffs. Instead, led by the unflappable, 38-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco who recently signed a one-year deal with the Browns that is loaded with incentives, Cleveland's offence has looked much improved over the last couple of weeks.

And if you combine their top-ranked, ferocious defence with Flacco, a former Super Bowl MVP who has been one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the NFL over the last decade, look out. If the Browns can go 2-2 over their last four games, they'll probably be in the playoffs and they'll be an extremely tough out for the AFC's elite.

Remaining schedule: (vs Bears, at Texans, vs Jets, at Bengals)

2. Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Yes, I know. The Bills are currently the 11th seed in the AFC standings and they would lose on just about every tiebreaker to the other teams in the wildcard race. But they also don't fit the statistical profile of a 7-6 team that's fighting for their playoff lives.

Buffalo currently ranks fifth in point differential and sixth in total DVOA, suggesting that they are one of the best overall teams in the NFL. They have a top-five scoring offence and a top-six scoring defence. The only other teams that rank in the top six in both categories are the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens, who are all tied for possessing the best record in the league at 10-3.

 The problem with the Bills has been their inability to make clutch plays when it matters most. They have a dismal 3-6 record in one-score contests (games decided by seven points or less), including excruciating losses to the Jets, Patriots, and Broncos.

The good news for Buffalo, though, is that they finally managed to win a close game last week when they defeated the Chiefs in Kansas City to get back over .500 on the season. And led by All-Pro quarterback Josh Allen (who currently leads the NFL with 35 total touchdowns this season), the Bills are certainly a team that can make some serious noise in the playoffs, if they can find their way in during these final weeks of the season.

Remaining schedule: (vs Cowboys, at Chargers, vs Patriots, at Dolphins)

3. Denver Broncos (7-6)

Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos throws a pass during an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Monday, Nov. 13, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. (Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports)

After starting the season with a dismal 1-5 record, which included an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins in Week 3 in which they gave up 70 points, it seemed like the Broncos were destined to enter the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

 However, the team from the Mile High City has since recovered from their early season woes, as they've won six out of their last seven games, with their only loss coming at the hands of a good Houston Texans team in Houston.

Future Hall of Fame head coach Sean Payton has done an excellent job of coaxing good play out of future Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson, who is enjoying a nice bounce-back season under center. Additionally, the Broncos' defence has been playing great over the last two months.

Denver also has a pretty light schedule to close out the season, with games against the Patriots, who have the worst record in the AFC, and the Raiders (who had lost three straight games coming into Week 15). Their upcoming road game against the NFC North-leading Lions won't be easy, but it's certainly winnable for Denver, who have been playing better football compared to the Lions recently.

 It wouldn't be surprising if the Broncos ended up winning the rest of their games and entered the playoffs for the first time since their Super Bowl-winning season in 2015.

Remaining schedule: (at Lions, vs Patriots, vs Chargers, at Raiders)

4. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)

Ja'Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals catches a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)

"Hear that Bengal growlin'. Mean and angry, here he comes a prowlin".

After their franchise quarterback Joe Burrow was ruled out for the rest of the season due to suffering a torn ligament in his right wrist, it looked like the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that has made back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, would be left out of the postseason mix in 2023. That seemed even more likely after they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12 to drop to 5-6 on the season.

But, led by backup quarterback Jake Browning, Cincy has won back-to-back games over the Jaguars and the Colts respectively over the last two weeks. A lot of credit has to go not only to Browning, who is playing lights out right now, but also to head coach Zac Taylor, who has clearly instilled a winning culture in the Queen City.

The Bengals have a tough stretch of games to end the season, including a trip to Pittsburgh for their rematch against the AFC North rival Steelers and a trip to Arrowhead Stadium for an AFC Championship game rematch against the Chiefs. However, this team has proven time and time again that they are at their best when they are counted out.

Remaining schedule: (vs Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs Browns)

5. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

Gardner Minshew #10 of the Indianapolis Colts during an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports)

Statistically, the Colts aren't a good football team. They rank 14th in total offence, and 25th in total defence. They have a point differential of -16, suggesting that they should be well under .500 right now on the season.

However, fueled by aggressiveness on defence (their 21 takeaways are tied for fourth most in the NFL) and their propensity to win close games (5-2 record in one-score games), rookie head coach Shane Steichen has managed to get his team to a 7-6 record with a chance to clinch Indy's first playoff berth since 2020.

It's been a remarkable season for the Colts, because their rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson (who was selected with the fourth overall pick in this year's draft) has been out since late October with a shoulder injury. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew has played solid in his place and will have to continue to do so if Indianapolis is going to crash the postseason party. They play the Steelers (who we'll get to in just a moment) tomorrow in a game that is going to have monster playoff implications.

Remaining schedule: (vs Steelers, at Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans)

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

T.J. Watt #90 of the Pittsburgh Steelers sacks Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. (Justin K.Aller/Getty Images)

After pulling out a close victory over the Green Bay Packers back in Week 10, the Steelers had a 6-3 record and sat in second place in the AFC North, just one game back of the Ravens (who they beat in Week 5). And then, the wheels began to fall off.

Pittsburgh has won just one out of their last four games. They became the first team in NFL history with a winning record to lose back-to-back home games to teams that were at least eight games under .500 coming into their matchup with the Colts, as they fell short to the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots.

Although the Steelers possess a solid defence led by All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt, their offence has left much to be desired throughout the season. That unit has yet to score 30 points in a single game in 2023, and they rank 27th in total offence. Starting quarterback Kenny Pickett has not taken the fabled second-year leap and is currently injured, while backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has really struggled.

You can never count out a Mike Tomlin-coached team. But Pittsburgh (with their -40-point differential) has been extremely fortunate to even get to this point. If they don't get better play from the quarterback position starting with tomorrow's big game against the Colts, it seems likely that the Steelers' playoff drought will extend to two years.

Remaining schedule: (at Colts, vs Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens)

7. Houston Texans (7-6)

C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. (Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports)

The fact that the Texans are even in playoff contention this late into the season is a major success for general manager Nick Caserio. Just last season, Houston went 3-13-1, which was the second-worst record in the NFL in 2022 (only the Chicago Bears had a worse record, 3-14).

But in 2023, led by top five draft picks in quarterback C.J. Stroud (who is having quite literally one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history), edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (who has a chance to finish in the top three in voting for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award), and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have arguably been the most surprising team in the NFL this season, which so far has featured them blowing out the division-leading Jaguars in Jacksonville, and notching a big-time win over the Bengals (who had a healthy Joe Burrow at the time) in Cincinnati.

Unfortunately, Texans fans may have to wait a year before they get to see Stroud and Co. in the playoffs. Houston has lost two out of its last three games and in addition, Stroud and Anderson are dealing with injuries and both star rookies will most likely miss their game on Sunday against the Titans. Regardless, it's clear that the Texans have one of the brightest futures in the NFL, and it wouldn't be surprising if they begin to compete for AFC Championship games and Super Bowls as soon as next season.

Remaining schedule: (at Titans, vs Browns, at Titans, at Colts)

The following teams have less than a 10% chance of making the postseason, but they have yet to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention:

Las Vegas Raiders (6-8):

The Raiders are coming off a MASSIVE win over the Chargers on Thursday, but they only have a 3% chance of making the playoffs, which is compounded by the fact that they have to face the Chiefs, Colts, and Broncos over the last few weeks. Owner Mark Davis is going to have a lot of interesting decisions to make over the offseason, including whether if interim head coach Antonio Pierce (who the players really love) should be the lead man moving forward for the franchise.

Remaining schedule: (at Chiefs, at Colts, vs Broncos)

Tennessee Titans (5-8):

The Titans notched a crazy comeback win over the Dolphins last Monday. Rookie quarterback Will Levis was great down the stretch when he needed to be, and it seems like Tennessee has found their next franchise quarterback. If that is indeed the case, even though they won't make the playoffs this season, it wouldn't be shocking at all if the Titans were back in the playoffs in 2024, led by Levis, a solid defence, and a great head coach in Mike Vrabel (assuming he stays in Tennessee).

Remaining schedule: (vs Texans, vs Seahawks, at Texans, vs Jaguars)

New York Jets (5-8):

For just the second time in 2023, the Jets scored 30-plus points, as they defeated the Texans last week, 30-6.

Even though this has been a lost season for the Jets with the injury to Aaron Rodgers, it was definitely nice to see Zach Wilson play great in last week's victory. The rest of the season is all about gaining momentum for 2024 when Rodgers makes his return.

Remaining schedule: (at Dolphins, vs Commanders, at Browns, at Patriots)

Los Angeles Chargers (5-9):

The Chargers are still technically alive in the playoff hunt, but let's be honest with ourselves; they just gave up 63 points to the Raiders. 63! Head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco were fired today, and Los Angeles has a ton of work to do to surround star quarterback Justin Herbert with a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

Remaining schedule: (vs Bills, at Broncos, vs Chiefs)

The following team has already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention heading into Week 15.

New England Patriots (3-10)