Lions vs. Packers: Thursday Night Football X-Factors and Prediction

 (Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates as the Lions defeat the Packers 20-16 on "Sunday Night Football" at Lambeau Field on January 8th, 2023. Photo Credits: USA Today)

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is officially upon us, and on tap tonight, we have a huge game in the NFC North as Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (2-1) head to Lambeau Field to take on Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (2-1) on "Thursday Night Football".

The last time these two teams squared off was back in January when the Lions (who were already eliminated from playoff contention) knocked the Packers out of playoff contention in the final week of the regular season. That game was the last game of the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay and now, Jordan Love will make his debut in this bitter divisional rivalry.

Will the Lions defeat the Packers for the fourth consecutive time? Or will the Packers (who are slight underdogs coming into this one) pull off the upset? Let's take a look at three key X-factors and who I think will win tonight's matchup.

X-Factor #1: Lions pass rush vs. Packers offensive line

Over the years, the Packers have been known for having a great offensive line. In fact, through the first three games of the season, Green Bay's offensive line has the highest pass-blocking efficiency rate in the NFL (93.9%).

 However, All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins are both out for tonight's game with a knee injury and an MCL sprain respectively. In addition, right tackle Zach Tom, who has been playing at a very high level so far this season, is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury. That's bad news for a unit that has to go up against Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who has two sacks to go along with a pretty good 82.6 grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

 Hutchinson terrorized the Packers in their two matchups last season, with one interception and two sacks (both of which came in the season finale meeting). If the Packers can't block Hutchinson, Jordan Love will be in for a long night under center.

X-Factor #2: Lions offensive line vs. Packers pass rush

On the flip side, just like the Packers, the Lions also have a great offensive line, headlined by Pro Bowl tackle Penei Sewell. The matchup between Sewell and Packers star edge rusher Rashan Gary will be a fun battle to monitor throughout the night.

After missing last week's game against the Atlanta Falcons, left tackle Taylor Decker will be playing for Detroit tonight, which will give their whole offence a big boost. 

Jared Goff is not Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen; he can't extend plays and he's not going to routinely make plays out of structure. But give him time to throw the ball and he's as deadly as any quarterback in the league. The Packers must be able to pressure Goff throughout the game, especially since the secondary will likely have trouble defending Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions' Pro Bowl receiver, as Green Bay's All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander is unlikely to play in tonight's matchup.

X-Factor #3: Lions defensive backs vs. Packers wide receivers

As I mentioned in my power rankings for this week, the Lions' defence has played at a much higher level compared to last season. Led by cornerbacks Jerry Jacobs and Cameron Sutton, along with rookie defensive back Brian Branch, Detroit likes to play very aggressively on defence and make the opposing quarterback throw into tight windows.

The Packers could be getting back wide receiver Christian Watson for this game. Watson, a 2022 second-round pick by Green Bay, finished his rookie season with 41 catches, 681 total yards, and nine touchdowns from scrimmage (seven receiving, two rushing). Watson has missed each of the first three games of the season with a hamstring injury, but it's looking increasingly likely that he will play, which would be huge for Jordan Love and the Packers' offence.

Prediction:

Each of the last three meetings between these two teams have been close games, with the Lions winning all three.

On paper, the Lions are the better team. But they are travelling on a short week to play a Packers team at home that matches up well with them.

It will be close, but with Watson and running back Aaron Jones back in the mix, Jordan Love will have everything he needs at his disposal to help Green Bay end their three-game losing streak to the Lions and keep the Packers atop the NFC North entering Week 5. 

Lions 21 Packers 24