Ranking the Teams in the Hunt: AFC Edition

 

It's Week 16 in the NFL, and the playoff race is really starting to heat up as various teams are doing everything they can to lock up a playoff spot.

So far in the AFC, only the Buffalo Bills (11-3) and the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) have clinched a postseason berth, with an astonishing 11 teams fighting for the remaining 5 playoff spots.

Here are the current AFC division leaders:

1. Buffalo Bills (11-3)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4)

4. Tennessee Titans (7-7)

AFC Wildcard contenders, ranked:

1. Baltimore Ravens (9-5, currently the 5th seed)

The Ravens came into Week 15 as the top team in the AFC North before a loss to the Browns on Saturday coupled with a Bengals win over the Buccaneers on Sunday knocked the Ravens down to a wildcard spot.

Their offence was already struggling before MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury back in their Week 13 win over the Broncos. Baltimore's offence has since gone ice cold in the past two weeks, averaging just 9.5 points per game.

However, led by their #10 ranked defence, The Ravens should still make the postseason, and remain in the hunt for the AFC North title. But they need Jackson to come back fast.

Remaining schedule: (vs Falcons, vs Steelers, at Bengals)

2. Miami Dolphins (8-6, currently the 7th seed)

After starting off with a 8-3 record, the Dolphins have cooled down considerably, losing three straight games to the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills respectively.

With third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup, the Dolphins went 8-0, while averaging 29 points per game (with Tua throwing 19 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions during that span). But in the last three games, the Dolphins' scoring average has dropped to 21 points per game as Tua has thrown 6 touchdowns while committing 3 turnovers during their three game skid.

However, it seems like Miami's offence might be getting back on track, as they scored 29 points against a tough Bills defence in the cold, and Tua's play was more than good enough to win that game. Miami still has the inside track to a playoff spot, but going from 8-3 and leading your division to 8-6 and barely hanging on to a playoff spot isn't exactly the most ideal situation.  Not to mention that two out of there last three games are AFC East matchups against the Patriots and the Jets, two teams that are trying to overtake Miami for the 7th seed in the conference.

Remaining schedule: (vs Packers, at Patriots, vs Jets)

3. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6, currently the 6th seed)

Coming into the season, the Chargers were on the shortlist of Super Bowl contenders. However, due to injuries, as well as inconsistent play and coaching, Los Angeles got off to a 5-5 start and it seemed as if the Chargers were on track to miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season (which is unfathomable for a team with Justin Herbert as their quarterback).

Instead, the Chargers have won three out of their last four games, and currently have the inside track to the 6th seed in the AFC. And surprisingly, it's not Herbert leading the team's recent hot streak, but rather, it's the Chargers' defence that's been playing lights out, allowing just 31 points in their last two victories over the Dolphins and the Titans.

The Bolts also have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire NFL (.298% combined winning percentage between their last three opponents). And with star defensive players Derwin James and Joey Bosa (potentially) returning from injuries, you can't count out this Chargers team from making a run in the postseason, if they take care of business and get there.

Remaining schedule: (at Colts, vs Rams, at Broncos)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8, currently on the outside looking in)

The Jaguars have not made the postseason since 2017, when their "Sacksonville" defence led the team all the way to the AFC Championship Game (Myles Jack still wasn't down by the way).

After enduring a 2-6 start to the season (with all six losses coming by 8 points or less), Jacksonville has been on fire as of late, as they've gone 4-2 in their last six games, including an amazing comeback win over the Cowboys last week.

Trevor Lawrence, the #1 overall pick from the 2021 draft, has shown signs that he is taking the leap into becoming an elite quarterback, as he has thrown for 1,680 yards, and 14 touchdowns compared to just one interception.

The Jags are now just one game behind the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South, and already beat them once this season (36-22) in Tennessee back in Week 14. They will play the Titans again during the final week of the regular season, and it seems increasingly likely that that matchup will determine who wins the division and makes the playoffs.

Remaining schedule: (at Jets, at Texans, vs Titans)

5. New York Jets (7-7, currently on the outside looking in)

The Jets are in a bit of a freefall right now, as they have dropped three straight close games, and overall, have gone 1-4 after a surprising 6-3 start to the season.

The main reason for this has been the play of their offence. 2021 #2 overall pick Zack Wilson was back under center last week for the Jets after getting benched for backup quarterback Mike White (who didn't play due to suffering multiple rib fractures in their Week 14 loss to Buffalo).

Wilson wasn't horrible, throwing for 317 yards, two touchdowns, and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, but he also threw a horrible interception in the second half, leading to the Lions offence scoring three points in a game where the Jets lost by that exact same margin.

The Jets defence, led by Quinnen Williams, and Sauce Gardner, is one of the best in the NFL, and gives them a chance to win every week. But if their offence continues to struggle tonight in their Thursday Night matchup against the Jaguars, Gang Green's playoff drought will likely extend to thirteen years.

Remaining schedule: (vs Jaguars, at Seahawks, at Dolphins)

5. New England Patriots (7-7, currently on the outside looking in)

Last week, the Patriots took on the Raiders. And with a 24-17 lead late in the 4th quarter, it seemed as if New England was going to improve to 8-6, and stay on track for a playoff berth.

Instead, the Patriots gave up a game-tying touchdown with less than a minute remaining, and then in one of the craziest plays that you will ever see, ended up losing the game on the final play as Raiders edge rusher Chandler Jones intercepted a lateral pass from Patriots receiver Jakobi Myers and took it back to the house for a pick-six.

Now, New England probably needs to win out and get some help in order to make the playoffs for the second straight season. That won't be an easy task, considering that they have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL.

Remaining schedule: (vs Bengals, vs Dolphins, at Bills)

The following teams have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, but have not been mathematically eliminated:

Las Vegas Raiders (6-8):

The Raiders managed to save their season with their wild victory over the Patriots on Sunday. But they have to win out in order to have a shot at a playoff berth, and even if they do, they still will only have a 60% chance of making the postseason. And it doesn't help that they are tied for the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the league.

Remaining schedule: (at Steelers, vs 49ers, vs Chiefs)

Cleveland Browns (6-8):

Deshaun Watson got his first victory as the quarterback of the Browns last Saturday against the Ravens, but the offence has mightily struggled since Watson has took over the reigns under center, averaging just 16.6 points per game. Unfortunately for the Browns, they would lose just about every tiebreaker to all of the other teams that are currently ahead of them in the playoff race, meaning that it would take the absolute chaos for the Browns to make their third playoff appearance since 1994.

Remaining schedule: (vs Saints, at Commanders, at Steelers)

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8):

The Steelers beat the Panthers last week to keep their playoff hopes on life support, but similarly to the Browns, the Steelers (with their 2-7 record against AFC opponents) would lose almost every tiebreaker scenario and thus have no room for error going forward. It's very likely that head coach Mike Tomlin will have his first losing season of his coaching career.

Remaining schedule: (vs Raiders, at Ravens, vs Browns)

Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1):

The Colts are still technically alive for playoff berth, but after blowing the largest lead ever in a NFL regular season game against the Vikings last week, they can essentially kiss their postseason hopes goodbye.

The following teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention heading into Week 16:

Denver Broncos (4-10)

Houston Texans (1-12-1)