NFL Divisional Round Predictions (2026)

 

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and Seattle Seaahwks head coach Mike Macdonald embrace before an NFL football game between the 49ers and Seahawks, Sunday, Sept. 7, 2025, at Lumen Field, in Seattle, WA. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks, 17-13. (Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images)

And then there were eight.

After a crazy Wild Card Weekend slate that featured four games that were decided by four points or less, it is officially time for the divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs, and this week features some very interesting games as well.

On Saturday, fresh off winning their first road playoff game since 1992, reigning MVP quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills will be on the road once again to take on the AFC's top-seeded Denver Broncos. Then, a few hours later, the battered and bruised San Francisco 49ers will take on the NFC's top-seeded Seattle Seahawks for the third time this season for the right to go to the NFC Championship Game.

Then, on Sunday, the Houston Texans will try to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history as they take on the upstart New England Patriots. After that, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will try to survive and advance as they do battle against Caleb Williams and the cardiac Chicago Bears.

My best pick from last week: taking the Texans over the Steelers. Coming into this game, it seemed like it would be tough sledding for the Steelers' offence and that proved to be true, as they scored just six points and 175 yards of total offence against a very good Texans defence. If this is it for future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it's been one heck of a ride.

My worst pick from last week: taking the Chargers over the Patriots. I overthought this one. Yes, they played an easy schedule during the regular season, but the Patriots have played great on both sides of the ball all season long, and you can't rack up a plus-170 point differential by accident. Maybe next season will be the year that Justin Herbert finally breaks through with a playoff victory.

Saturday Games:

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton embrace after an NFL wildcard playoff game, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills defeated the Broncos, 31-7. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Buffalo Bills (13-5) @ Denver Broncos (14-3): 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)

These two teams met in the playoffs last year in an AFC wildcard round matchup, where the Bills dominated the Broncos by scoring 31 unanswered points. Now, they'll face off against each other once again in the postseason, this time in the divisional round, where the Broncos will have home-field advantage and host a playoff game for the first time in a decade.

During last week's wildcard round playoff win over the Jaguars, Bills reigning MVP quarterback Josh Allen was phenomenal, as he threw for 278 passing yards and one touchdown, while also gaining 33 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns (including the game-winning one with a little over one minute remaining in the fourth quarter). However, despite Allen playing great last week, I think he'll need more help from All-Pro running back James Cook (15 carries, 46 rushing yards, 3.1 rushing yards per attempt vs the Jaguars) in this game, because the Broncos defence (second in total defence, third in fewest points allowed per game, first in sacks) is elite, led by Pro Bowl edge rusher Nik Bonnito (14 sacks), All-Pro defensive lineman Zack Allen (seven sacks), and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in cornerback Patrick Surtain II (12 pass deflections, one interceptions).

Meanwhile, second-year quarterback Bo Nix enjoyed a solid sophomore campaign (4,287 total yards, 30 total touchdowns) while tying Russell Wilson for the most wins by a quarterback in his first two seasons, though it's also worth mentioning that Nix did struggle with efficiency (63.4 completion percentage, which ranks in the bottom half of the league). Look for Nix to heavily rely on Pro Bowl wide receiver Courtland Sutton (74 catches, 1,017 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns) throughout this game against a Bills team that is great at defending the pass (first in fewest passing yards allowed per game, fourth in opponent completion percentage). The biggest key for the Broncos on offence is whether or not they can find a way to control this game on the ground. Led by rookie running back RJ Harvey (896 total yards, 12 total touchdowns), Denver isn't great when it comes to running the football (16th in rushing yards per game), but Buffalo's defence really struggles to stop the run (28th in rushing yards allowed per game, 30th in rushing yards allowed per attempt), and they did give up 154 rushing yards to the Jaguars' rushing attack last week, so look for the Broncos to try and take advantage of that and keep Josh Allen off the field for as long as they can.

From top to bottom, the Broncos are the better, all-around team and they certainly have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL with the altitude, but the Bills match up well with them, and they undoubtedly have the advantage at the most important spot: the quarterback position. Look for Allen to narrowly get the best of the Broncos' defence, and help lead the Bills to the AFC Championship Game for the second consecutive season.

The pick: Bills 23, Broncos 20

Sam Darnold #14 of the Seattle Seahawks and Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers embrace after an NFL football game, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, at Levi's Stadium, in Santa Clara, CA. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers, 13-3. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

San Francisco 49ers (13-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (14-3): 8:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The 49ers defeated the Seahawks, 17-13, all the way back in Week 1 in September, while the Seahawks returned the favor by defeating the 49ers just two weeks ago, by a score of 13-3, to clinch the NFC West and the number one seed in the NFC. Now, on Saturday, they'll face off against each other for the third and final time this season to determine who advances to the NFC Championship Game next week.

Despite losing All-Pro and future Hall of Fame tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles, the 49ers managed to knock off the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, led by All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (21 touches, 114 total yards, two receiving touchdowns, which included an amazing touchdown catch on a trick play). Star quarterback Brock Purdy had some good moments (262 passing yards and two touchdown passes, including the game-winning one with just under three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter) and some bad moments (two bad passes that led to interceptions). Purdy will have to play a lot better than he did last week against a top-notch Seattle defence (sixth in total defence, first in fewest points allowed per game, sixth in takeaways) that is extremely talented and well-coached by head coach Mike Macdonald and features star players at all three levels, such as All-Pro defensive lineman Leonard Williams (seven sacks), All-Pro linebacker Ernest Jones IV (126 total tackles, five interceptions, seven pass deflections), and All-Pro defensive back Devon Witherspoon (72 total tackles, one interception, seven pass deflections).

In his first season with the Seahawks, Pro Bowl quarterback Sam Darnold played well, throwing for 4,048 passing yards, and 25 touchdown passes while becoming the first player in NFL history to notch back-to-back 13-win seasons with two different teams. However, Darnold's play has quietly begun to tail off recently, as he has thrown eight touchdowns to eight interceptions over his past four games. The good news for Darnold is that the 49ers (20th in total defence, 25th in passing yards allowed per game) have struggled to generate turnovers (tied for 31st in the NFL with just interceptions) all season long, and will have to find a way to slow down Darnold's favorite target, All-Pro wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has enjoyed a dominant campaign (119 catches, 1,793 receiving yards, 10 receiving touchdowns).

I have a lot of respect for the 49ers coaching staff (specifically head coach Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh), and they've done a tremendous job of coaching up a Niners squad that has fought valiantly to get to this point, but I think their run ends here. Seattle's ferocious defence will shut down McCaffrey, generate a couple of turnovers off of Purdy, and advance to the NFC title game for the first time since 2015.

The pick: 49ers 13, Seahawks 23

Sunday Games:

C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans embraces with Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, at Gillette Stadium, in Foxborough, MA. The Texans defeated the Patriots, 41-21. (Brian Fluharty/Imagn Images)

Houston Texans (13-5) @ New England Patriots (15-3): 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

The Texans come into this game having won a franchise record 10 games in a row. However, as a franchise, they have a 0-6 record in the divisional round of the playoffs (losing those six games by an average score of 15 points), and they will have to knock off Patriots All-Pro quarterback Drake Maye and a very well-coached Patriots team on the road in order to snap that streak.

Maye wasn't at his best during last week's game against a very good Chargers defence (268 passing yards, one touchdown pass, two turnovers), but ultimately, he came up big-time when it mattered most (he completed 11 of his 14 passing attempts in the second half for 173 passing yards and a dazzling touchdown pass to tight end Hunter Henry to seal the deal) and he played at an MVP level consistently this season (4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdown passes, and a league-high 113.5 passer rating). Maye will face an even tougher challenge on Sunday against a Texans' defence that ranks first in total defence, sixth in fewest passing yards allowed per game, fourth in fewest rushing yards allowed per game, second in fewest points allowed per game, third in opponent passer rating (76.2), and third in takeaways (29). So yeah, they're pretty good.

Texans third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud was just good enough against the Steelers last week, throwing for 232 passing yards and a touchdown pass. However, Stroud also turned the ball over three times (one interception, two fumbles), and didn't look comfortable standing in the pocket against a stout Steelers front seven. New England's defence completely shut down the Chargers' offence last week, holding them to just 207 total yards and 3.5 yards per play. Additionally, Stroud's favorite target, Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins (68 catches, 1,060 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns) will miss the game with a concussion, which will make it that much more difficult for Houston to have success throwing the football against a Patriots' secondary that features All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez (10 pass deflections).

All in all, this should be a very interesting game to watch on both sides of the ball. Houston's defence is the best in the NFL, but ultimately, I trust Maye a little bit more than Stroud right now to make pivotal plays down the stretch. As a result, I think the Patriots will manage to squeak by the Texans, and advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2019.

The pick: Texans 17, Patriots 20

Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams embraces with Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears before an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at Soldier Field, in Chicago, IL. The Bears defeated the Rams, 24-18. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Los Angeles Rams (13-5) @ Chicago Bears (12-6): 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

What an amazing matchup we have to close out the divisional round of the playoffs, as two former number-one overall picks in quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford (2009) and Caleb Williams (2024), square off against each other. The Rams will attempt to advance to the NFC Championship Game for the second time in five seasons, while the Bears aim to reach the NFL's final four for the first time since 2010.

Stafford played at an MVP level throughout 2025, leading the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46). Stafford was decent against the Panthers last week (304 passing yards, three touchdown passes, one interception), and he came up clutch by throwing the game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Colby Parkinson to help the Rams pull out a win in the final seconds. And with the help of star wide receivers Puka Nacua (129 catches, 1,715 receiving yards, 10 receiving touchdowns) and Davante Adams (60 catches, 789 receiving yards, 14 receiving touchdowns), as well as a potent rushing attack led by running backs Kyren Williams (1,252 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns) and Blake Corum (746 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns), Stafford and head coach Sean McVay have everything they need to repeatedly exploit a suspect Bears defence that is great at taking the football away (33 takeaways, most in the NFL), but struggles at doing anything else well (22nd in passing yards allowed per game, 27th in rushing yards allowed per game).

Williams struggled mightily to begin last week's playoff matchup against the Green Bay Packers, as he completed only two of five passes for 40 yards and an interception on throws 15 or more air yards down the field in the first half. But in the second half, the guy known as the "Iceman" caught fire, as he threw for 166 passing yards and two touchdown passes (including the game-winning strike to wide receiver D.J. Moore with just under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter) to help Chicago outlast their bitter division rival.

 Moore (50 catches, 682 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns), Rome Odunze (44 catches, 661 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns), and star rookie tight end Colston Loveland (58 catches, 713 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns during the regular season, eight catches for 137 receiving yards against the Packers last week) give Williams a talented bunch of playmakers to throw the ball to, but make no mistake about it, the Bears' biggest strength on offence is their ability to run the football (third in rushing yards per game), led by running backs D'Andre Swift (1,087 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns) and Kyle Monangai (783 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns). The Rams' defensive line, led by Pro Bowl edge rushers Jared Verse (7.5 sacks), Byron Young (12 sacks) and star defensive tackle Kobie Turner (seven sacks), will need to ensure that Swift and Monangai don't take over the game, and if they can do that, they should have many opportunities to consistently pressure Williams throughout the game, although he is certainly not easy to chase down.

With all of the talent that both of these teams possess on offence, combined with the fact that McVay and Bears head coach Ben Johnson are two of the best offensive coaches in the NFL, I think there will be a lot of points in this game. Chicago has enjoyed an amazing season, and they certainly have a bright future led by Williams and Johnson. However, the Rams are the more battle-tested and talented team. Stafford will have a huge outing throwing the football, and led the Rams to a rubber match with the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game next week.

The pick: Rams 38, Bears 33