Super Bowl 59 Prediction
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the football during the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIX, Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023, at State Farm Stadium, in Glendale, AZ. The Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-35, to win their second Super Bowl with Mahomes at quarterback. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vasquez)
After a very long and grueling season that featured OTAs and minicamps, a month-long training camp, a three-week preseason, 272 regular season games, and 12 playoff games, it is finally time for one of the biggest sporting events of the world: The Super Bowl! And Super Bowl LIX is shaping up to be a fun one, as the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles at the Superdome in New Orleans.
If you feel like you've seen this matchup before, it's because you have! Two seasons ago, these two teams met in Super Bowl LVII in a thrilling game that saw the Chiefs win, 38-35, in Glendale, Arizona. That Super Bowl victory by the Chiefs in that game was their first of back-to-back titles as they went on to defeat the San Francisco 49ers, 25-22, last year in Super Bowl LVIII. And now, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the crew will try to do something nobody else has ever done in the history of the NFL: win three straight Super Bowl championships.
On the flip side, Philadelphia comes into this game looking to get revenge on Kansas City for that loss two years ago and will attempt to win their second Super Bowl trophy in franchise history. Led by a stacked group of great players such as All-Pro quarterback Jalen Hurts, All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley, All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Brown, and the league's best defence, this is a very talented Eagles squad that is one win away from immortalizing themselves into the history of pro football by denying a Chiefs three-peat.
So, which of these two teams will take home the much coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy? Before I get to that, I'm going to break down three key matchups I think will ultimately decide who wins the 59th edition of the "Big Game".
#1. Chiefs run defence vs Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL divisional round playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025, at Lincoln Financial Field, at Philadelphia, PA. The Eagles defeated the Rams, 28-22, to advance to the NFC Championship game. (AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
The biggest question for Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his players coming into this game is this: can they somehow contain Saquon Barkley? Barkley, who will play on his birthday during the Super Bowl, has been borderline unstoppable this season, as he led the NFL in rushing yards (2,005) and became just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season. Additionally, Barkley has rushed for 442 yards during the playoffs and is only 30 yards away from breaking Terrell Davis' record for most rushing yards in a single season (incl. playoffs). So it's safe to say that keeping Barkley from taking over the game will certainly be difficult for Kansas City's defence to do on Sunday.
So far in these playoffs, the Chiefs defence hasn't been the strongest at stopping the run, as they have given up an average of 148.0 rushing yards per game in two playoff wins over the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills while also allowing 4.9 rushing yards per attempt in those two games as well. Barkley is averaging a whopping 6.7 rushing yards per carry in the playoffs so far.
If All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones (who always seems to rise to the occasion in big games) and the rest of Kansas City's defensive front can do what nobody has been able to do this season and slow down Barkley, they'll likely be well on their way to another Super Bowl title. But if Saquon continues to do "Saquon" things, then the Eagles will have a legitimate shot at dethroning the champs.
#2. Chiefs interior offensive line vs Eagles interior defensive line
Jalen Carter #98 of the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Dec. 29, 2025, at Lincoln Financial Field, in Philadelphia, PA. The Eagles would go on to win, 41-7. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
In football, games are usually won and lost in the battle between the offensive line and the defensive line. And a big reason why the Chiefs and the Eagles are the final two teams remaining is because of their talent in the trenches.
After getting blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV in large part due to their inability to slow down Tampa Bay's pass rush, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach made a concentrated effort to improve the team's offensive line by making a bunch of moves, including the signing of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and the draft selections of All-Pro center Creed Humphrey and Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith. Those three big acquisitions have helped Kansas City build one of the best offensive lines in the NFL to protect Mahomes and open up rushing lanes for the run game.
However, due to inconsistencies at the left tackle position this season, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been forced to tinker with the offensive line, taking Thuney and moving him to left tackle to protect Mahomes' blindside while inserting backup Mike Caliendo into the starting left guard spot.
It'll be very interesting to see how Caliendo (and the rest of Kansas City's offensive line) fares against a very talented Eagles defensive front that features All-Pro defensive tackle Jalen Carter (6.5 sacks, incl. playoffs), who has been dominant all season long for Philadelphia. While Carter usually lines up on the left side of the defence (which, in this game, would see him match up against Smith), I think it would be very wise of Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to switch things up and have Carter line up on the right side against Caliendo in crucial situations. Carter is currently dealing with an illness, but assuming that he'll be ready to go on Sunday, the Chiefs will certainly have to develop a good gameplan for him because he is a game-wrecker on the defensive side of the ball.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo during the AFC Championship game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 26, 2025, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs defeated the Bills, 32-29. (Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
You could certainly make the argument that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the greatest assistant coach of all time. The 65-year-old coach has won four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator in his career, three with the Chiefs and one with the New York Giants when he helped them defeat the 18-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII back in 2007. The thing that "Spags" is extremely well-known for are the exotic blitz packages that he'll often throw at opposing quarterbacks, including this one against Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen during the fourth quarter of this year's AFC title game.
Led by Barkley and the best offensive line in football, the Eagles' offence is usually very good at staying ahead of the chains and therefore avoiding those dreaded third-and-long situations that Spagnuolo lives for. But eventually, there will be a couple of instances on Sunday where Philly will find themselves in a crucial third-and-10 and will be forced to throw the football down the field.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is coming off a great performance in the NFC Championship game and this season, the 2022 MVP runner-up was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against the blitz. With star weapons such as wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (along with Pro Bowl-caliber tight end Dallas Goedert), Hurts will have the necessary answers to lean on in this game whenever Spagnuolo decides to blitz. The question then becomes, will Hurts be able to find those answers quickly enough in the face of heavy pressure? The answer to that will likely determine the winner of Super Bowl LIX.
Prediction:
Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs during Super Bowl Media Day, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, at Caesars Superdome, in New Orleans, LA. (Getty Images)
The more I think about this game, the more I can't decide who I think is actually going to win.
On one hand, you have an extremely talented, well-built Eagles team that had a lot of questions coming into this season after suffering an embarrassing playoff loss last January. General manager Howie Roseman deserves credit for putting together a great team that certainly has a lot of reasons for their success this season. This is an Eagles squad that is very skilled and focused on bringing the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to the "City of Brotherly Love".
But of course, on the other hand, you have the Chiefs, who are, well, the Chiefs. They are inevitable, led by Mahomes' constant steadiness in crunch time. It says something that although the Eagles are the more talented team from top to bottom, the Chiefs are currently favored to win the game. At this point, it seems that if the Chiefs are in a close game, they are going to walk away with a win, evidenced by the fact that Mahomes has won an NFL-record 17 straight one-score (games decided by eight or less points) contests.
Barkley will continue to razzle and dazzle. Hurts will make some big plays. And Fangio's defence will bother Mahomes throughout the game. But at the end of the day, Mahomes is Mahomes. Kelce is Kelce. Reid is Reid. Spags is Spags.
The fact that future Hall of Fame quarterback (and seven-time Super Bowl champion) Tom Brady will be calling this game in the booth for Fox Sports is really ironic. Brady made a lot of history throughout his NFL playing career. And on Sunday, Brady (along with us at home) will witness history once again, as Kansas City achieves what no other NFL team has ever achieved: A Super Bowl three-peat.
The pick: Chiefs 27 Eagles 24
Super Bowl LIX MVP pick: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback
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