Super Bowl 58 Prediction
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs gets chased by Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers during Super Bowl LIV, Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL. The Chiefs would go on to win, 31-20. (Getty Images)
Well, well, well. After 272 regular season games and 12 playoff games, only two teams remain in the hunt for a championship. On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Las Vegas, Nevada to determine the recipient of the desperately coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Making an appearance in the "Big Game" is nothing new for both teams. The Chiefs come into Super Bowl LVIII as the defending world champions, having won Super Bowl LVII last year against the Philadelphia Eagles. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs are making their sixth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. They are 2-1 with those aforementioned future Hall of Famers leading the way. A win by the Chiefs would give them their third Super Bowl victory in five years, which would officially cement them as the next dynasty in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are making their eighth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Led by Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa among others, the Niners are probably the most talented team in the NFL right now. Since 2019, San Francisco has won 54 games, trailing only the Ravens, Packers, Bills, and the Chiefs for the most victories in the league over that span. But while the 49ers are one of the most successful franchises in the history of the NFL, this is a team that hasn't won the Super Bowl since 1994. Will this year finally be the year where head coach Kyle Shanahan and Co. get over the hump?
Sunday's matchup will be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV from four years ago. In that game, the 49ers held a 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter before Mahomes and the Chiefs stormed back to win, 31-20, on the back of scoring 21 unanswered points in the final frame. You just know that San Francisco would love to avenge that horrible meltdown in Miami.
Before I get to who I think will win Super Bowl 58, let's take a look at three very important matchups that will undoubtedly make an impact on Super Bowl Sunday.
#1. 49ers run defence vs Isiah Pacheco
During the regular season, the 49ers were very good at stopping the run, as they finished third in rushing yards allowed per game. However, they have not been able to replicate that success so far in the playoffs. In the divisional round, they allowed the Packers to rush for 136 yards on the ground, and in the NFC Championship game against the Lions, San Francisco allowed 182 rushing yards. And while the Chiefs were below-average at running the football this season, running back Isiah Pacheco (935 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns) is one of the most physically imposing backs in the league, averaging a staggering 3.5 yards per carry after contact.
Suppose Pacheco has success on the ground in this game. In that case, that will open up opportunities for Mahomes (four touchdown passes, zero interceptions, 105.2 passer rating in three playoff games) and the Chiefs' passing offence to attack downfield. But if the 49ers can bottle up Kansas City's rushing attack, that will allow their pass rush, headlined by Nick Bosa (12.5 sacks, incl. playoffs) to get after Mahomes and potentially force a couple of turnovers that could swing the game in San Francisco's favour.
#2. 49ers pass catchers vs Chiefs DBs
L'Jarius Sneed #38 of the Kansas City Chiefs lines up against San Francisco 49ers wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (#11) and Deebo Samuel (#19) during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2022, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Kym Fortino/49ers)
This is a huge strength-on-strength matchup within this year's Super Bowl. The 49ers arguably possess the best trio of pass catchers in the league with prolific route runner Brandon Aiyuk (75 catches, 1,342 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns), do-it-all weapon Deebo Samuel (1,117 total yards, 12 total touchdowns) and dynamic tight end George Kittle (65 catches, 1,020 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns) all capable of scoring from any part of the field once they get the football in their hands. Samuel and Aiyuk finished eighth and 17th in yards after catch (YAC) respectively, while Kittle had 483 yards after the catch, which ranked third among all tight ends. And of course, you can't forget about running back Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL this season in scrimmage yards (2,023) and total touchdowns (25, incl. playoffs).
To slow down San Francisco's elite weaponry, the Chiefs' defensive backs are going to have to bring their A-game, which is something that they have done all season long. Led by veteran defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City's defence was one of the best units in all of football in 2023. Led by cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed (who made the biggest play of the season for the Chiefs during last week's AFC Championship game), and Trent McDuffie (three sacks, five forced fumbles, and seven pass deflections), the Chiefs have allowed just 41 total points while going up against the Miami Dolphins (who had the number-one ranked offence during the regular season), Buffalo Bills (led by MVP candidate Josh Allen), and the Baltimore Ravens (led by MVP favourite Lamar Jackson).
All in all, while the 49ers are stacked from top to bottom with firepower on offence, the Chiefs are one of the few teams in the league that could slow them down and make the Niners have to fight for every extra yard. If Kansas City can limit San Francisco's YAC opportunities, that would go a long way in determining the winner of this game.
#3. Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw vs Travis Kelce
Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers tackles Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs during Super Bowl LIV, Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL. (Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports)
In today's NFL, it's generally the offences that captain the ship and get most of the attention. And most teams in the league love to attack the middle of the field. The 49ers have been one of those teams since Kyle Shanahan took over as the head coach of the team back in 2017. Shanahan has managed to get the best out of his quarterback (regardless if it was Jimmy Garroppolo or Purdy under center) by scheming up easy throws to that part of the field.
Ironically, the 49ers also currently possess the best linebacker duo in the NFL, with Fred Warner (132 total tackles, 2.5 sacks, four interceptions) and Dre Greenlaw (120 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, four pass deflections) patrolling the middle of the field on every snap. Both Warner and Greenlaw are physical and aggressive, and they are also capable of making great plays in coverage.
Usually, the 49ers have the advantage in terms of who wins the battle over the middle of the field. But not in this matchup. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is a future Hall of Famer. Sure, Kelce had a down year compared to his standards (although 93 catches for 984 yards is nothing to sneeze at). Still, he's been awesome in the playoffs, especially last week, when he caught 11 passes for 116 yards and an amazing, back-shoulder touchdown grab against Ravens All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton in the AFC title game.
Warner may be a three-time All-Pro player and Greenlaw is excellent in his own right as well, but Kelce is a whole other animal. It's going to take a lot of great scheming from 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and great execution from Warner, Greenlaw, and the rest of San Francisco's defence if they're going to limit arguably the greatest tight end of all time.
Prediction:
Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs and George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers greet each other before an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2022, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Getty Images)
This is a very tough game to predict. Both of these teams are evenly matched, with great defences, and great, future Hall of Fame head coaches in Reid and Shanahan, who have both changed the way that offence is played in the NFL, albeit in their own unique ways.
This game represents a huge opportunity for both quarterbacks as well. Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft, has a chance to permanently shed his "game manager" label and become the second-youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.
On the other hand, with a win on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes will become just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win at least three Super Bowls and he is still only 28 years old! He would have the same amount of rings at the age of 28 as Tom Brady had, which would continue to fuel the idea that Mahomes could surpass Brady as the GOAT in the NFL one day.
Super Bowl 58 will be a back-and-forth contest between two outstanding teams. Purdy will play a great game, but at the end of the day, I just can't bet against Patrick Mahomes. The greatest player on the planet will once again lead a game-winning drive in the Super Bowl, capped off by a game-clinching 47-yard field goal by Harrison Butker to seal the deal. By Sunday night, it will be officially rational to say that the Kansas City Chiefs are the new dynasty in the NFL.
49ers 27 Chiefs 30
Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback
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