2023 NFL Playoff Predictions

 

The highly anticipated 2023 NFL season will officially kick off on September 7th, as one of the most surprising teams from last season (the Detroit Lions) will go on the road to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

But for now, I've decided to make my own playoff predictions for this upcoming season.

Out of all the 14 playoff teams from last season, I predict that 10 of them will make it back to the postseason this season (including both Super Bowl 57 participants). However, this also means that four new playoff teams will enter the mix for the Lombardi Trophy in 2023. Who will those four teams be? Let's get to the predictions!

z = home-field advantage throughout the playoffs

y = division winner

x = playoff berth

ELIM = eliminated

AFC East:

1. Miami Dolphins (11-6) (y)

2. Buffalo Bills (11-6) (x)

3. New York Jets (11-6) (x)

4. New England Patriots (6-11) (ELIM)

In what should be a heavily-contested division race, the Miami Dolphins will win the AFC East for the first time since 2008. Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, a great offensive mind in head coach Mike McDaniel, and a much-improved defence (at least on paper) led by new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and newly acquired All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins have all the pieces to make a deep postseason run this season. The only question with this team is if Tagovailoa can stay healthy after suffering multiple concussions during last season. But if he's upright, it's going to be very difficult to defeat this Dolphins squad.

Buffalo has won the AFC East in each of the last three seasons, but I think that streak will finally come to an end this season. Even with that being said, from their Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs-led offence to their defence that has been elite for much of the past half-decade (ranking 2nd in total defence in 2018, 3rd in total defence in 2019, 1st in total defence in 2021, and 6th in total defence in 2022), they will have another good season, and make the playoffs for the 5th consecutive year.

The New York Jets, now led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a stout defence (No. 4 in total defence in 2022), will finally snap their 12-year playoff drought and will ensure that for the first time ever, three teams from the AFC East will make the postseason.

Meanwhile, the New England Patriots will be competitive, but ultimately, they will come up short of making the playoffs and will finish with a sub-.500 record for the third time in the last four seasons.

AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) (y)

2. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5) (x)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) (ELIM)

4. Cleveland Browns (9-8) (ELIM)

With Lamar Jackson finally getting the massive contract extension that he deserves, the Baltimore Ravens are primed to be one of the AFC's top teams in 2023. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken in the fold and new acquisitions at wide receiver (2023 first-round pick Zay Flowers and former All-Pro Odell Beckham Jr.), the Ravens will pair their new look (more pass-heavy) offence led by Jackson with a very good defence (No. 3 in rushing defence, No. 3 in points allowed per game last season) led by All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey to win the division title for the first time since 2019.

The Cincinnati Bengals, winners of the AFC North the past two seasons, come into this year as Super Bowl contenders after nearly making their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance last season. And although I don't think they will win the division this season, they will always be one of the top teams in the AFC (and the entire NFL for that matter) as long as they have Joe Burrow at quarterback. Look for Cincy to be a major player in the AFC title race once again in 2023.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an excellent NFL Draft, and seem to be a team on the rise as they won seven out of their last nine games last season. The defence, led by All-Pro and 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt should be a top-10 unit this season. They also have one of the best coaches in the NFL in Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing season during his 15 seasons as the Steelers head coach. If second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett can take a big leap, then this team should battle for the division crown and a playoff berth this season (although I have them finishing just shy of making the playoffs this season, it wouldn't shock me if they did).

The Cleveland Browns finished in last place in the AFC North last season (which is right in line with how this franchise has conducted itself over the last few decades). However, I must say that this current Browns team is stocked with talent, ranging from Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper and a stout offensive line on the offensive side of the ball, to Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward leading the way for the defence. If Deshaun Watson (who is finally back for a full season after missing the entire 2021 season and more than half of the 2022 season after he was accused of sexual assault and harassment from over 20 women) can get back to his elite level of play from 2017-2020 during his time with the Houston Texans, Cleveland can easily make the playoffs and be a contender in the AFC, but a Browns' collapse is almost like Christmas; an annual event that you know is coming.

AFC South:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7) (y)

2. Tennessee Titans (8-9) (ELIM)

3. Indianapolis Colts (5-12) (ELIM)

4. Houston Texans (3-14) (ELIM)

Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South for the first time since 2017, and then proceeded to make the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history by defeating the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wildcard Round before falling short in the AFC Divisional Round against the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs. But make no mistake about it; this young, talented team seems to only be getting better. And with 2021 first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence continuing to improve as their franchise quarterback, the Jaguars should be able to take advantage of a weak division and win consecutive division titles for the first time since 1998-1999.

Under former New England Patriot and three-time Super Bowl champion Mike Vrabel as their head coach, the Tennessee Titans managed to stack up six consecutive winning seasons, including four playoff appearances, two division titles, and an AFC Championship Game appearance from 2016-2021. However, in 2022, due to an inept offensive attack (30th in total offence in 2022) and numerous injuries, the Titans finished with an 8-9 record and missed the playoffs last season. As always, Vrabel will get his team to battle and play hard, but outside of running back Derrick Henry and defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons, the top-end talent on this team just isn't there and because of that, I predict that they will once again fall short of a postseason berth in a crowded AFC playoff picture.

The Indianapolis Colts have finally gotten off the quarterback carousel train with the first-round selection of dynamic quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson has some shades of Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson in him, which is not to say that he will end up being as successful as those two MVP quarterbacks, but he certainly has a ton of potential and it also helps that his head coach happens to be Shane Steichen, who played a huge role in helping Jalen Hurts develop into a MVP quarterback himself last season. The Colts do have some nice pieces on this team around Richardson, namely 2021 All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor, and an elite linebacker on defence with All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard. However, this is still a Colts team in transition, so they probably won't win many games this season, though the future is definitely bright in Indy.

Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are rebuilding. I think that they have a bright future, led by 2023 first-round picks C.J. Stroud at quarterback and edge rusher Will Anderson. I also like the hiring of former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to be their new head coach. But this team has a long way to go before they become playoff contenders again.

AFC West:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) (z)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8) (ELIM)

3. Denver Broncos (9-8) (ELIM)

4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) (ELIM)

Led by the reigning Super Bowl MVP (and regular season MVP) quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce, and one of the best coaches in NFL history in head coach Andy Reid, the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will continue to dominate the AFC West, as they will win their eighth straight division title while becoming the first team since the 2003-04 and the 2004-05 New England Patriots to win 14 games in two consecutive seasons (and not coincidentally, those Patriot teams were the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champions, a feat that the Chiefs will try to accomplish this season).

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers are not so different from the Kawhi Leonard-Paul George-led Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA: A very talented team that unfortunately can't stay healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert leads this team on a deep playoff run this season, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they have a mediocre season and miss out on making the playoffs in a crowded AFC.

The Denver Broncos are placing their entire future on two men: quarterback Russell Wilson and head coach Sean Payton. Of course, the biggest thing that the Broncos will figure out this year is if Payton, a former Super Bowl-winning head coach, can revive Wilson's career, after Wilson's disastrous first season in Denver last year. I suspect that Payton will help Wilson improve, but it won't be enough to snap Denver's seven-year playoff drought (although I think it will be enough to snap their six-year losing season streak).

The Las Vegas Raiders are stuck in the worst possible place you can be in sports: No Man's Land. They're too good to be really bad and get a high draft pick, but not good enough to contend for a championship. Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garropolo at quarterback isn't much of an upgrade (I would even consider it to be a downgrade considering Garropolo's much-maligned injury history) and while there is definitely some high-end talent on the roster with All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams and All-Pro edge rusher Maxx Crosby, it's not totally clear what direction this team is going in. Let's just say, it's not particularly a great time to be a Raiders fan right now.

NFC East:

1. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) (y)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) (x)

3. New York Giants (7-10) (ELIM)

4. Washington Commanders (4-13) (ELIM)

No team in the NFC East has won back-to-back division titles since the 2003-04 and the 2004-05 Philadelphia Eagles. And I think that bizarre streak will continue this year as the Dallas Cowboys will win the NFC East for the second time in three years, and for the fourth time in the Dak Prescott era.

With new acquisition wide receiver Brandin Cooks now in the fold, opposing defences will no longer be able to only keen in on Pro Bowl receiver Ceedee Lamb, which will only make an offence that finished 4th in points per game last season (27.5 ppg) even more dangerous in 2023. Combine that with a great defence (tied for fifth in fewest points allowed per game) led by the 2021 and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Micah Parsons (26.5 sacks over the last two seasons), and that's a recipe for the Cowboys to have another good regular season (although of course, the only thing that matters for this team is making a deep playoff run, something the Cowboys haven't done since 1996).

Although the defending NFC champion Eagles won't win the division, they'll still be a formidable foe, as they still arguably have the most talented roster in the NFL from top to bottom. I do have them falling from 14 wins to 11 wins this season, but consider this: Philly ranked high on the Adjusted Games Lost list, which suggests that they were one of the healthiest teams in the league last season. And considering the physical nature of the NFL, it's doubtful that they stay that healthy this year. However, led by last year's MVP runner-up Jalen Hurts, a dynamic wide receiver duo featuring A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and a good defence, Philly is still a strong contender in the NFC and I wouldn't be shocked if they advanced further in the playoffs than the Cowboys do even without the benefit of having home field advantage throughout the playoffs like they did last year.

The New York Giants were one of the flukiest teams in the NFL last year, going 8-4-1 in one-score games last season (for reference, they finished with a 9-7-1 record, meaning that they only won one game by double digits last year, a 38-10 win over the lowly Colts in Week 17. It's also unclear what kind of direction the team wants to take: they paid Daniel Jones big money and traded for Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, but they refuse to pay All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley, who is their best player. I know running backs have a short shelf life, and Barkley has dealt with numerous injuries in the past. But the Giants' offence literally runs through Barkley, without him, no good NFL defence should be scared of this Giants' offence. Regardless, they will regress this season and miss the playoffs.

The Washington Commanders have finally gotten rid of owner Daniel Snyder, and they have a ton of talent on defence, particularly on the defensive line with Pro Bowler Da'Ron Payne (11.5 sacks in 2022), Pro Bowler Jonathan Allen (7.5 sacks in 2022), Montez Sweat (8.0 sacks in 2022), and 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young. However (mainly because of his injury woes over the last two seasons), Young could be on the trade block, and on the other side of the ball, the franchise is still looking for their franchise quarterback after Kirk Cousins left to sign with the Vikings in free agency during the 2018 offseason. With Pro Bowl wide receiver Terry McLaurin, and wide receiver Jahan Dotson among others, this Commanders offence certainly isn't void of playmakers. The question is, can second-year quarterback Sam Howell prove to be the future at the most important in football for a team that has not won a playoff game since 2006.

NFC North:

1. Detroit Lions (11-6) (y)

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-9) (ELIM)

3. Green Bay Packers (8-9) (ELIM)

4. Chicago Bears (5-12) (ELIM)

The last time that the Detroit Lions were division champions, it was called the "NFC Central", and not the "NFC North" as it is known today, and the Soviet Union was just mere days away from dissolving. Yes, I'm not joking, it's really been that long. However, the Detroit Lions team of the present has been building something special over the last few years, and the patience that their front office has shown will finally pay off as the Lions will win 11 games, clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2017, and host a playoff game in Detroit for the first time since January of 1992.

If the New York Giants were one of the flukiest teams in the NFL last season, then the Minnesota Vikings were without a doubt the flukiest team in the NFL last season. They won 13 games last season, and 11 of those wins were by one score (7 points or less). Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback (albeit not an elite one), and Justin Jefferson is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, but deciding to release four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook will hurt their offence, and while I like the hiring of Brian Flores to be their new defensive coordinator, their defence is very young and lacks talent at critical positions (edge rusher, cornerback). The Vikings will suffer from regression, and miss the playoffs for the fourth time in the last six seasons.

For the first time since 2005, the Green Bay Packers will enter a season without Aaron Rodgers on their roster. The 4-time MVP quarterback of course is now on the New York Jets, meaning that the reins of the franchise now belong to 24-year-old Jordan Love. I've already talked about Love and the Packers at length in a separate article, so I won't repeat myself here. But this Packers team still has a lot of talent on the roster, particularly on defence. However, with this being Love's first season as the starting quarterback, there will be various growing pains, which will result in the Packers missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season. But I do think that Love (and the Packers' offence in general) will be better than most people expect.

The Chicago Bears had the worst record in the NFL last year, finishing with only 3 wins. In the offseason, though, the front office got busy, signing linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards in free agency, and then, the Bears pulled off a blockbuster trade, trading the number-one overall pick to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for wide receiver D.J. Moore. Moore is a Pro-Bowl caliber receiver who will help accelerate the growth of young, talented quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears might not win a lot of games this season (they have no blue-chip talent on the defensive side of the ball), but they will be competitive and it appears that the future is very bright in Chicago.

NFC South:

1. New Orleans Saints (10-7) (y)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-8) (x)

3. Carolina Panthers (5-12) (ELIM)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-14) (ELIM)

The NFC South is wide open in 2023. Any of the four teams could win this division, except for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of course. With Tom Brady enjoying retirement, the Buccaneers' two-year reign as NFC South champions is over.

This means that a new team will emerge as the top team in the NFC South this season, and I think it's going to be the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have failed to find an adequate replacement for future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees after he retired after the 2020-21 season. In the offseason, they went out and acquired former Raiders franchise quarterback Derek Carr. While Carr is not an elite quarterback, he is a solid one who has 28 career 4th quarter/overtime comeback wins, which ranks third among all active quarterbacks in the NFL (only Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have more). The Saints also already have an ascending star at wide receiver in Chris Olave (72 catches, 1,042 receiving yards, 4 TDs, 14.5 yards per catch in 2022), and if veteran franchise players Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas can stay healthy, this Saints offence can be explosive. And if you combine that offence with their elite defence, the Saints could be darkhorse contenders in the NFC in 2023.

The Atlanta Falcons have not made the postseason since 2018. But I think they are a young team on the rise. On offence, they have tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson, both of whom have been dubbed as "unicorns". They also feature second-year wide receiver Drake London (72 catches, 866 receiving yards in 2022), and a good offensive line led by All-Pro guard Chris Lindstrom. Their defence isn't great, but I love their off-season acquisition of safety Jessie Bates III. A second-team All-Pro in 2020, Bates' play has dipped a bit over the past two seasons, but he will still improve a secondary that already includes 2021 second-team All-Pro cornerback A.J. Terrell. If second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder takes a big sophomore leap, then the Falcons have a decent chance of ending their five-year playoff drought.

Ever since losing Super Bowl 50 to the Denver Broncos, the Carolina Panthers have been in a complete tailspin. Outside of an 11-5 season in 2017 that ended in a Wildcard Round loss to the Saints, Carolina has been one of the NFL's bottom-tier teams, as they haven't clinched a playoff berth since that 2017 season. Enter Bryce Young, the 2021 Heisman winner and the number-one overall pick in this year's draft. Young is only 5'9, but without a doubt, he is a special talent. The Panthers have not had a franchise quarterback since the prime days of Cam Newton. But I think Carolina has found their next franchise QB, even though Young probably won't lead them to many wins this season.

NFC West:

1. Seattle Seahawks (13-4) (z)

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) (y)

3. Los Angeles Rams (5-12) (ELIM)

4. Arizona Cardinals (2-15) (ELIM)

Just a couple of seasons ago, you could've easily made the argument that the NFC West was the best division in the NFL. But today, only the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers seem primed to have a chance at making the playoffs. 

Last season, the Seahawks were one of the most surprising teams in the league. Most people (including myself) expected them to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but led by quarterback Geno Smith (who enjoyed a remarkable resurgence in 2022) and future Hall of Fame head coach Pete Carroll, Seattle finished with a 9-8 record and made the playoffs before losing to the 49ers in the Wildcard Round. But in 2023, led by Smith, talented second-year running back Kenneth Walker III, and wide receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks' offence is shaping up to be one of the best in the NFL, and it will serve as the main catalyst for them winning the NFC West and clinching home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs for the first time since 2014 (the last time the Seahawks were in the Super Bowl).

The 49ers (who have lost consecutive NFC Championship Games) are on the shortlist of Super Bowl contenders in 2023. The only thing that gives me pause about this team is that no one (including their coaches) has no idea who will start at quarterback in Week 1. However, regardless of whether it is Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold starting under center, Kyle Shanahan is going to make it work on offence with playmakers such as tight end George Kittle, wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and running back Christian McCaffrey leading the way. Not to mention that the 49ers also have an elite defence (first in total defence, first in fewest points allowed per game in 2022) led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa (18.5 sacks in 2022, 34 sacks over the last two seasons) and All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (130 tackles, 10 pass deflections, one interception in 2022). The 49ers will be right back in the NFC title chase in 2023.

The L.A. Rams followed up their 2021 Super Bowl-winning campaign by going 5-12 in 2022, as injuries to all of their key players (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald among others) kept piling on throughout the season. In 2023, they will have all of these players back, but at the same time, they also traded away star cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins for essentially pennies on the dollar. This team has some star power, but they also possess key holes at tight end, edge rusher, linebacker, and cornerback. They will be a bit more competitive this season because it's very rare for a team to be that injured in back-to-back seasons, but ultimately, they will win the same amount of games in 2023 as they did in 2022, and will not make the playoffs this season.

Things change very quickly in sports, and the NFL is not an exception. On October 28, 2021, the Arizona Cardinals entered into a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Green Bay Packers on top of the football world. They were 7-0, the last unbeaten team in the league, led by dynamic quarterback Kyler Murray, who was in the midst of having an MVP-caliber campaign. And then, after losing to the Packers in dramatic fashion, the Cardinals imploded, going 4-6 over the next ten games before getting blown out in the Wildcard Round by the eventual champion Rams. They then followed that up with a dismal 4-13 campaign in 2022. Murray is currently recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered late last season, star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins was released by the team last month, and star safety Budda Baker (who is currently the best player on the team) recently requested a trade. I think you could argue that the Cardinals have the worst roster in the entire NFL, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished with the worst record in the league in 2023.