2023 NFL Championship Sunday Predictions

 

After a mostly boring Divisional Round of the playoffs, it's quite fitting that the four best teams in the NFL are still remaining as Championship Sunday approaches.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been the best team in the NFC all season, evidenced by their franchise record 13-1 start to the regular season. Standing in their way to a second Super Bowl appearance in 6 seasons are the San Francisco 49ers, the hottest team in the NFL, as they come into this NFC Championship Game on a twelve game-winning streak. The 49ers are seeking to reach their second Super Bowl in 4 years, after coming up painfully short in the NFC title game last season.

On the AFC side, we have the rematch: Bengals vs Chiefs, featuring Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. These two franchise quarterbacks have gone head-to-head 3 times over the last three seasons, with Burrow and the Bengals getting the better of Mahomes and the Chiefs all three times. If Kansas City wants to make their third Super Bowl appearance in the Mahomes era, they'll need to find a way to slow down the man they call "Joe Shiesty".

My best pick from last week: Eagles over Giants. Third time was not the charm for Big Blue as they got clobbered by Philly last Saturday. Over their three matchups this season, the Eagles outscored their NFC East rivals 108-45, a point differential of +63. That's just insane.

My worst pick from last week: Cowboys over 49ers. Picking a team that has not advanced past the divisional round in 27 years had "Bold strategy cotton, let's see if it pays off for them" vibes written all over it. Sorry Cowboys fans. Maybe next year.....

NFC Championship Game:

San Francisco 49ers (15-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (15-3): 3:00 PM ET on Fox

There is so much firepower on both sides of the ball in this matchup. The 49ers have such a well-diversified scheme on offence. Orchestrated by head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers offence can beat you in a myriad of different ways with a variety of players such as George Kittle, Kyle Juszcyk, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. And under rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, the 49ers offence has averaged 32.6 points per game.

They will have a tough time replicating that type of success in this game, as the Eagles defence has been suffocating all season long. They have the best pass rush in the NFL, evidenced by their league-leading 70 sacks. They also feature a lock-down secondary, anchored by Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and C.J. Gardner Johnson (17 interceptions, tied for 3rd in the NFL). For San Francisco, their best bet at consistently moving the ball will be with the running game led by McCaffrey, as the Eagles defence can be susceptible on the ground (16th in rushing yards allowed per game during the regular season). Look for Purdy to avoid Slay and Bradberry on the perimeter and instead target Kittle and McCaffrey over the middle frequently.

The Eagles offence is just as fun and amazing to watch as San Francisco's. They can beat you on the ground, with Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Jalen Hurts all involved in their RPO (run pass option) heavy scheme. Of course, they can air it out with the best of them as well, with stars such as A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert giving Hurts (a much improved passer compared to the last time these two teams saw each other last season) multiple options in the passing game. 

What allows Philly to do all of this is their magnificent offensive line. Center Jason Kelce and right tackle Lane Johnson are both All-Pro players and potential Hall of Famers. And the rest of their front five were all either named to the Pro Bowl or named as Pro Bowl alternates. When your offensive line is elite at both pass protection (tied for 9th in pass block win rate and run blocking (2nd in run block win rate), it all adds up to greatness (the Eagles rank 3rd in total yards per game, 9th in passing yards per game, and 5th in rushing yards per game). 

The 49ers defence has been the best in the NFL this season, led by superstars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. But if there's one chink in their armour, it's their pass defence (20th in the NFL), which will be tested by Brown and Smith throughout the day.

In the end, this NFC Championship Game will come down to the battle in the trenches and quarterback play. With this game being at Lincoln Financial Field, I think the Eagles will take care of business and book their trip to Arizona for Super Bowl 57. Can you say, Fly Eagles Fly?

49ers 20 Eagles 30

AFC Championship Game:

Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (15-3): 6:30 PM ET on CBS

Of course, the biggest storyline surrounding this game (besides the recent renaming of the Chiefs stadium) is Mahomes' ankle injury that he suffered against the Jaguars last week in the divisional round. Mahomes did practice over the week and appears to be ready to go for Sunday, which is definitely great news for all of us as NFL fans.

The Bengals (winners of ten straight) will try to defeat the Chiefs (winners of six straight) for the fourth time in the last 12 months. However, even though the Bengals have "owned" the Chiefs recently, all three of their wins against Kansas City have come by exactly three points (34-31 in Week 17 of last season, 27-24 in last year's AFC Championship game, and 27-24 again last December), suggesting that this one will also come all the way down to the wire.

The main reason why the Bengals have won all of these close contests is the difference in quarterback play when it matters most. The Chiefs have been outscored 26-6 in the 4th quarter and overtime of the last three meetings between the two powerhouse teams. Here the split stats for both Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes in those "clutch" moments:

Burrow: 80% completion percentage, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 110.7 passer rating

Mahomes: 71.4 completion percentage, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 63.8 passer rating

Burrow was absolutely surgical in last week's divisional round victory over the Bills, throwing for 242 yards, 2 TDs, and a 101.9 passer rating, and the stats don't even tell the full story. A huge development for Cincy has been its much-maligned (and injured) offensive line, which bullied the Bills' defensive line repeatedly last Sunday. The Chiefs have one of the best players in the league on their defensive front in Chris Jones (15.5 sacks), but that whole front seven has to come to play this week because I just don't see how that young Chiefs secondary holds up consistently against the likes of star wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

On the other side of things, it will be interesting to see how Mahomes looks in this one. He's a good pocket passer, don't get me wrong, but his mobility is what really makes him so unique and hard to stop. And without it, the advantage in this one goes to the Bengals defence, which has been red hot over the last three months (especially last week against Josh Allen and a high-powered Bills offence). 

Travis Kelce (14 catches, 98 yards, 2 TDs vs Jacksonville last week) is awesome, but he's suddenly questionable to play in this game with a back injury, and the Cincinnati defence did a great job of slowing him down in their latest meeting (4 catches, 56 yards, one fumble lost).

With these two teams developing a heated rivalry, there's no question that this game will be full of everything that makes football football: big hits, big plays, and everything in between. Just like the last three games between the Bengals and Chiefs, this one will be decided by the slightest of margins. Even though they're playing at home, the Chiefs are at a disadvantage with part of Mahomes' game being taken away. Cincinnati will once again win it in the 4th quarter and represent the AFC in the Big Game for the 2nd consecutive year.

Bengals 31 Chiefs 27