Super Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Last week, I was decent when it came to my picks, going over .500 with a record of 9-7. I think I can do better this week.
Best pick from last week: picking the Raiders over Chargers. It was a wild game that almost ruined Steelers' fans' hearts (the Steelers would've missed the playoffs if the game ended in a tie), but in the end, the Raiders sealed their playoff berth while the Chargers blew it like they always do (Chargers gonna Charger).
Worst pick from last week: picking the Colts over the Jaguars. All the Colts had to do to get to the playoffs was to beat a 2 win Jaguars team (that needed a loss or a Lions win to clinch the first overall pick in this years' draft). Instead, the Colts proceeded to not show up as they got embarrassed by the Jags (whose fans literally dressed up as clowns at the game in protest of GM Trent Baalke), and in the process got eliminated from the playoffs. Oh, and the Lions won, securing the first pick for the Jags. Any given Sunday really proved itself to be true this season.
Teams on bye week: Titans, Packers
Saturday Games:
Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (10-7): NBC at 4:30 p.m. ET
What a great matchup we have to kick off the playoffs! Winners of four straight entering this contest, Derek Carr and the Raiders head into the Jungle to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who will be looking for their first playoff win since 1991 (ironically it was the Raiders who back then were based in Los Angeles who started Cincy's lengthy postseason victory drought).
The key in this one will be if Burrow (who will be making his playoff debut) will have enough time to throw against a Raiders defence that ranked eighth in pass-rush win rate (44%), and features Maxx Crosby, who led the league with 101 pressures (pressures = QB hits, hurries, and sacks combined), along with Yannick Ngakoue, who finished with 10 sacks. If Burrow does enough time to throw, he'll take advantage of a vulnerable Raiders defence (26th in points allowed) by throwing to his elite weapons like wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase (1,455 yards, 13 TDs), Tee Higgins (1,091 yards, 6 TDs), Tyler Boyd (828 yards, TDs), and tight end C.J. Uzomah (493 yards, TDs). They'll also have Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon (1,205 yards, 13 TDs) who ran for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns back in Week 11 against this same Raiders team.
On the flip side, before scoring 35 points in Week 18, the Raiders hadn't scored more than 23 points in five straight games. Derek Carr will be going up against a dangerous Bengals defensive front led by Pro Bowl edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (14 sacks), Larry Ogunjobi (7 sacks), and B.J. Hill (5.5 sacks). Vegas ranked near the bottom of the league when it comes to pass-block win rate, so I could see Carr being put on the ground a lot in this game. The Raiders will have to try running it as well with Josh Jacobs (who ran for 132 yards against the Chargers last week). That should prove to be quite difficult, as the Bengals finished 5th in rushing yards allowed this season.
The pick: Raiders 16 Bengals 24
New England Patriots (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6): CBS at 8:15 p.m. ET
In this one, we got an AFC East rubber match between the Pats and Bills. New England won the first meeting in the super harsh, windy conditions in Buffalo, as they ran for over 200 yards while their rookie quarterback Mac Jones threw the ball just three times. However, the Bills got revenge two weeks later in Foxborough, as Josh Allen threw for 314 yards, 3 TDs, and also ran for 65 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the Patriots had success running the football again (Damien Harris ran for 103 yards and 3 TDs). But Jones struggled, throwing for less than 150 yards, and 2 interceptions.
For New England, they're gonna have to get way more pressure on Allen than they did in the second meeting, or else they'll be going home for the offseason. Matthew Judon (12.5 sacks) lead the way in that regard, and he's going to have to get in Allen's face consistently, or else he'll have his way (for the second time in four weeks) with the Pats defence. Pro Bowl corner J.C. Jackson (8 interceptions, 23 pass deflections) will primarily defend All-Pro Stefon Diggs (103 receptions, 1,225 yards, 10 TDs), so that will definitely be something to monitor throughout the game.
On the other side, the Bills have struggled to defend the Patriots' running game in the first two meetings. If they're able to slow down the Damien Harris-led attack on the ground, then I think they'll have success here. As previously mentioned, the weather in the first game between these two wasn't pleasant, to say the least, which allowed the Patriots to run the ball the whole game. But in the second meeting where the weather conditions were much more normal, the Bills number one ranked defence stymied Mac Jones and the passing attack. The weather for this upcoming game calls for some potential snow, and it will be windy, but not to the extent it was during the first game in Buffalo.
The pick: Patriots 17 Bills 20
Sunday Games:
Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4): FOX at 1:00 p.m. ET
The Eagles will try to pull off the huge upset and knock off Tom Brady and the defending champs in the opening round. Philly got to this point on the back of the league's top-ranked rushing attack (159.7 rushing yards per game), and are led by second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts (26 total TDs, 9 interceptions) and rookie head coach Nick Sirianni. While Tampa Bay of course is led by Brady, who led the league in both passing yards (5,316), and passing touchdowns (43).
The weather forecast in this one calls for rain, and thunderstorms, which could give a slight edge to the Eagles, and their run game. The Eagles offence is built around shotgun carries to their bevy of running backs, zone-reads with Hurts, and RPOs (run-pass options) to take advantage of their punishing offensive line. But unfortunately for the Eagles, this is kind of a strength on strength matchup with the Bucs ranking third in run defence (just 92.5 rushing yards allowed per game), and are getting stud MLB Lavonte David (97 tackles, 12 games played), and star edge rusher Shaq Barrett (10 sacks) back for this game. The Bucs can be vulnerable to the pass (21st in passing yards allowed), but Hurts isn't fully developed as a quarterback yet and the Eagles had the fewest amount of passing attempts in the league (494 passing attempts). If the Eagles are constantly forced into third and long, they will not have any sort of success on offence in this ballgame.
The Buccaneers offence is still one of the most lethal in the league led by Brady. But without Chris Godwin (torn ACL), and Antonio Brown (no longer on the team), the G.O.A.T. will be relying on some unproven receivers throughout these playoffs, which could hurt them later on. The Eagles finished 11th in pass defence, led by elite cornerback Darius Slay (3 INTs, 9 pass deflections) who will be tasked with shadowing Bucs receiver Mike Evans (1,035 yards, 14 TDs). In the regular season matchup between these two, Brady was sacked just once and threw for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns, so Philly will have to get pressure with four (since blitzing Brady usually means bad news for the defence). The main problem for the Eagles here is that they've struggled to match up against tight ends, so Rob Gronkowski (802 yards, 6 TDs) could be an X-factor.
The pick: Eagles 14 Buccaneers 28
San Francisco 49ers (10-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5): CBS at 4:30 p.m. ET
A throwback matchup in this one, as the Niners go to Dallas to take on the NFC East champions, who possess the number one ranked offence (407 yards per game, 530 points scored). San Francisco, of course, got here after a dramatic comeback win over the Rams as Jimmy Garropolo made clutch throws and Deebo Samuel simply couldn't/can't be stopped this season (on the air and in the running game).
Let's start off with the 49ers offence. The 49ers are a run-first team under coach Kyle Shanahan, as they will primarily use Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 5 TDs), as well as Samuel (365 yards, 8 TDs) to get to the edge and use their speed and vision. The Cowboys defence was average against the run (16th in rushing yards allowed per game), and they'll counter with a lot of speed on defence, led by rookie superstar Micah Parsons (84 tackles, 13 sacks). In the passing game, Garropolo has a great bevy of weapons to target such as Samuel with 1,405 receiving yards, and 18.2 yards per catch (I told you he's a beast), do-it-all tight end George Kittle (910 yards, 6 TDs), Brandon Aiyuk (826 yards, 5 TDs), and Jauan Jennings (94 yards vs Rams last week, 5 TDs on the season). The Cowboys will try to counter with a ball-hawking secondary that led the league in takeaways (33). Trevon Diggs (11 interceptions) and Co. will try to capitalize on a turnover-prone Garropolo (15 giveaways), but they'll only do that if they manage to stop San Francisco's deadly ground attack first.
Dallas has all the talent in the world on offence. They can throw it with Dak Prescott (4,449, 37 passing TDs), and run it with Ezekiel Elliott (1,002 rushing yards, 10 TDs), and Tony Pollard (719 rushing yards). They also have a variety of weapons for Prescott to throw to as Amari Cooper (865 yards, 8 TDs), Ceedee Lamb (1,102 yards, 6 TDs), and tight end Dalton Schultz (808 yards, 8 TDs) combine to make for a lethal offence. The Niners' pass defence is very solid (sixth in passing yards allowed), but they lack a top tier secondary, so their best bet in this one is to get pressure on Prescott throughout the game, which won't be easy against a good Dallas offensive line, but certainly attainable with Nick Bosa (15.5 sacks), Arik Armstead (6 sacks), and Arden Key (6.5 sacks) leading the way.
The pick: 49ers 30 Cowboys 26
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-5): NBC at 8:15 p.m. ET
Somehow, someway, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still kicking as they've made it back to the postseason. Ben Roethlisberger came up clutch again against the Ravens in overtime and managed to extend his career. It would be a shocker if he did it again this week again, however, as the Steelers travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs, who are coming off of back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.
Stop me if you've heard it before. But the Steelers absolutely have to start off fast on offence going up against Patrick Mahomes. They have to find a way to get Najee Harris (1,200 yards, 7 TDs) going on the ground and get the ball to their main weapons (Diontae Johnson with 1,161 yards, 8 TDs, and Chase Claypool with 860 yards) on the outside. They got blown out against the Chiefs back in Week 16 (36-10), and in that one, the Steelers went scoreless in the first half. They'll suffer a similar fate if they start slow again.
The Chiefs offence is once again a juggernaut, finishing third in yards per game, and fourth in points scored (480). Mahomes struggled early in the season before finishing with 4,839 passing yards, and 37 touchdown passes, a "down" year compared to last season. The only concern for the Chiefs here is that both star weapons (Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce) are dealing with injuries at the moment. T.J. Watt (22.5 sacks), and Cam Heyward (10 sacks) will have to create a takeaway or two in this game for Pittsburgh, and maybe score a defensive touchdown as well.
The Pick: Steelers 17 Chiefs 31
Monday Night Game:
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (12-5): ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8:15 p.m. ET
We got another rubber match here, this time in the NFC West. Cardinals Rams Round III. The first game in Week 4 was a matchup where both teams entered at 3-0. The Cardinals blew out the Rams 37-20, as they managed to slow down Cooper Kupp (4 catches, 63 yards) who's had a record-breaking season, and Kyler Murray just did whatever he wanted. The Rams got back at them in Arizona during Week 14, as they picked off Murray twice, while Matt Stafford threw for nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Cardinals stumbled down the stretch after a 7-0 start, finishing going just 4-6 in their last ten. The offence played well against Seattle last week, but overall, they haven't looked the same without DeAndre Hopkins. In this one, they'll have to run the football effectively (like they did in the first meeting) to prevent Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd from completely wrecking the game (Donald had 14 TOTAL pressures in the Week 14 meeting and 3 sacks).
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has had a very good season in his first year in Los Angeles (besides the league-leading 17 interceptions of course). The Rams ran the ball well in both meetings with Arizona this season, and in the Week 14 game, that allowed the play-action game to open up for Stafford, where he excels in. Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr, and Van Jefferson all have good matchups against an injured Cardinals secondary, so the likes of Chandler Jones (10.5 sacks), Markus Golden (11 sacks), and J.J. Watt (who may be coming back from a major injury) have to get constant pressure on Stafford.
The pick: Cardinals 22 Rams 28
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